Dated: 23/03/2026 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkbo7f2Swr4
Presentation Summary
US
Technology and "Magnificent 7" Update
The
"Magnificent 7" saw a 6.7% pullback in February,
underperforming the broader market as investors reassessed the immediate ROI of
aggressive AI capital expenditures.
- Oracle (Buy, $275 TP): Revenue growth was led by a 44% surge in cloud
revenue. The company has strong visibility with future contracts
rising to $553 billion.
- Adobe (Buy, $368 TP): Growth is driven by Creative Cloud Pro, with a
strategy of "traction first, monetization later." Significant
monetization is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026.
- Micron (Buy, $530 TP): Revenue and profits spiked significantly (196% and 686%
respectively) due to a global memory shortage and rising average
selling prices. Micron is shifting toward more stable, five-year strategic
contracts.
- Nvidia (Buy): Remains a leader in the AI ecosystem with record free
cash flow. They are preparing for their next-generation
"Finnman" GPU launch in 2027 and have finalized a $30
billion investment in OpenAI.
- Tesla (Sell, $215 TP): Despite a rebound in China sales, the outlook remains
negative due to low market share and the long timeline (5+ years)
before robotics and full self-driving (FSD) contribute meaningfully to
revenue.
- Amazon (Buy, $280TP): 50 billion investment in OpenAI, making AWS the exclusive third-party
cloud provider for OpenAI’s enterprise agents.
Singapore
Market and REITs
The
presentation remains overweight on S-REITs, citing stable operating
performance and a decline in interest rates (3-month SOR/SIBOR) as favorable
factors.
- Top Pick: Retail REITs are favored due to limited supply,
healthy occupancy, and strong domestic consumption.
- Least Favorable: Hospitality REITs are expected to be the hardest
hit if Middle East tensions cause a decline in international travel.
- Local Economy: Ready-mix concrete demand is surging (up ~25%),
benefiting companies like Pan-United and Hong Leong Asia.
Regional
Stock Highlights
- Telechoice: Met expectations with growth in 5G network
engineering in Malaysia and Indonesia.
- Oiltek: Positioned as an oil price proxy with significant
potential in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects in Malaysia
and Indonesia.
- Geo Energy Resources (Buy, $0.75 TP): Despite lower-than-expected results
due to a one-off tax issue, a "trifecta" of drivers—including
a coal price rebound and a new 92km infrastructure road—is expected to
double production capacity.
Tactical
Outlook and Geopolitical Risks
The
presentation warned of a dire escalation in the Iran conflict, which
could lead to a supply shock worse than the pandemic.
- Oil Prices: Analysts noted similarities to the Kuwait War,
suggesting a trajectory where oil could potentially reach $200 per
barrel if the conflict severely impacts regional supply and shipping
lanes.
- Supply Chain: Unlike the pandemic, which primarily disrupted
shipping, a Middle East war could lead to a complete lack of supply
for critical chemicals used in plastics, detergents, and tires.
- Technical
Analysis: The S&P
500 has broken below its 200-day SMA, indicating further downside risk
in the near term.
Q&A Session
Singapore
REITs (S-REITs)
The
analysts ranked S-REIT sub-sectors by their resilience to the Middle East
conflict, placing Retail as the most favorable due to essential
spending, followed by Office and Industrial, while Hospitality
is considered the least favorable and hardest hit.
- CapitaLand Investment (CLI): Its direct Middle East portfolio
exposure is negligible (low single digits), though about 5% of its
investors are from that region.
- Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT): Its recent preferential offering was
only 60% subscribed because the offer price was too close to the market
price. Underwriting banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) absorbed the remaining
units and may offload them, which could put near-term pressure on the share
price.
- Suntec REIT: Following the acquisition of its manager, the REIT is
undergoing a strategic review that may include divesting non-core assets
in Australia and capital structure optimization.
- Hongkong Land: Its acquisition of a 10.8% stake in Suntec REIT is
viewed as a strategic repositioning of its portfolio within Singapore
commercial assets.
- CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS): Mentioned as having some Middle East
properties, though they contribute very little to the overall portfolio.
Banking
and Macroeconomic Outlook
The
three local banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) are expected to benefit from a
"higher for longer" interest rate environment, which offsets slower
loan growth in sectors like transport and storage.
- DBS: Identified as the primary beneficiary of global capital inflows
(flight to safety) due to its superior international outreach compared to
OCBC and UOB, which are more focused on the ASEAN market.
Technology
and Global Stocks
- Nvidia: Maintained a "Buy" rating. Key takeaways from
its GTC event included the transition from generative AI to "agentic
AI" (AI agents performing tasks) and the introduction of the Language
Processing Unit (LPU) chip to increase efficiency.
- Tesla: PhillipCapital continues to hold a Sell
recommendation, viewing it as overvalued and driven more by Elon Musk's
persona than by near-term fundamentals.
- AEM: Its partnership with ASE provides indirect exposure to TSMC
and strengthens its semiconductor packaging and testing capabilities.
- Oracle and Adobe: Analysts clarified that they maintained "Buy"
ratings despite lowering target prices because the potential returns still
exceed 20% based on current share prices.
- SpaceX: While not officially covered, it was noted that its
$1.5 trillion valuation is similarly tied to Elon Musk’s personal brand,
much like Tesla.
Aviation
and Commodities
- Singapore Airlines (SIA): SIA is better protected against oil
price spikes than US airlines because of its 12-24 month fuel hedging
policy. It is also benefiting from rerouted flight demand as airlines
avoid Middle Eastern airspace.
- CNMC Goldmine: Fundamentals remain strong due to central bank
purchases, though gold prices have dipped as rising US Treasury yields
make yielding assets more attractive.
Other
Stocks and Technical Highlights
- LHN: Management is pivoting toward non-residential segments,
focusing on adding 250-280 hotel keys and expanding higher-margin
air-conditioned storage.
- Singtel: Technical analysis shows a general uptrend, though a
short-term pullback toward the 4.85–4.90 range is possible.
- Q&M Dental: Recently saw a technical breakout above the 54-55 cent
level.
- CATL: Remains in a strong uptrend as long as the price
maintains its level above 640.
- SATS: Showing near-term weakness with a potential
retest of the $3.52 support level.
No comments:
Post a Comment