PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary

 Dated: 18/05/2026 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YJplfOQoQE 

Presentation Summary

Magnificent 7 and US Tech Updates

The "Magnificent 7" stocks saw a significant 16% rebound in April, outperforming the S&P 500's 10% growth, fueled by strong first-quarter earnings and growing confidence in AI monetization. Key highlights include:

• Alphabet & Meta: Alphabet reported strong search and cloud revenue growth, with a notable $40 billion investment in Anthropic to expand compute capacity. Meta saw a 33% increase in ad revenue but faces pressure from higher capital expenditure (capex) guidance and regulatory scrutiny regarding acquisitions.

• Amazon & Nvidia: Amazon’s AWS segment recorded its fastest growth in 15 quarters (28%), benefiting from its in-house chips like Graviton and Trainium. Nvidia remains the primary beneficiary of increased capex from hyperscalers, maintaining a 90% market share in the GPU space.

• Microsoft & Apple: Microsoft was downgraded to "Accumulate" due to higher capex and margin pressure, despite its AI business exceeding $37 billion. Apple's results exceeded expectations, particularly in China, but analysts remain cautious due to rising memory costs and the unclear near-term impact of its AI collaborations.

• Tesla: Despite beating earnings estimates, Tesla remains a "Sell" recommendation due to intense Chinese competition, declining market share in China, and significant execution risks associated with its "terafab" project.

Other Corporate Earnings

• Sea Ltd: The company is treating 2026 as an investment year for Shopee, focusing on live streaming and logistics. Its gaming segment saw its strongest performance since FY21.

• AppLovin: Reported robust ad momentum and record-high adjusted EBITDA margins of 85%.

• Airbnb: While results met expectations, the stock was downgraded to "Neutral" due to high operating expenses and volatility caused by conflict in the Middle East affecting bookings.

Singapore Market and REITs

• REITs: Prime US REIT is seeing improving occupancy (83.1%), though distributable income was impacted by rent-free periods for new leases. United Hampshire US REIT remains defensive with a high occupancy rate of 97.7%.

• Singapore Stocks: SIA Engineering was upgraded to "Buy" following share price weakness, with growth driven by associate and joint venture income. ComfortDelGro was downgraded to "Neutral" due to declining taxi earnings and weak consumer spending. ThaiBev was upgraded to "Buy" as it recorded record-high gross margins due to lower material costs.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

Technically, analysts noted potential bearish reversal patterns (Evening Star) for the S&P 500 at key resistance levels. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also showed signs of a potential double top, suggesting a likely pullback or sideways consolidation. Historically, when the Weekly RSI reaches current extreme levels, average returns over the following year tend to be negative.

Domestically, Singapore's new home sales remain strong despite limited supply, and exports in the region have spiked due to inventory shoring and forward buying.

Q&A Session

US Technology and Growth Stocks

• Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft (re: Anthropic): Analysts discussed Anthropic's strategy of diversifying its compute supply across hyperscalers. AWS is currently viewed as its closest strategic partner due to deep integration with Bedrock and significant investment, while Google Cloud acts as a secondary pillar for TPU infrastructure.

• Microsoft: Analysts addressed billionaire Bill Ackman's comments that the recent pullback in Microsoft shares created a "compelling valuation". They agreed that the market overreacted to capital expenditure concerns, noting that Azure sustained 40% growth and AI-related business is expanding significantly.

• Palantir (PLTR): The company’s heavy reliance on US revenue is not seen as a near-term risk, as the US commercial segment continues to accelerate. Slower international growth is attributed to foreign countries' caution regarding data access for a US-based firm.

• Apple: Discussion focused on the rising cost of memory impacting margins and the "strategic power struggle" with OpenAI. Apple is expected to treat AI models as interchangeable backend providers (like Gemini) rather than allowing one partner to dominate its ecosystem.

• Amazon: The rollout of 30-minute delivery may pressure near-term margins but is expected to strengthen its competitive moat by increasing purchase frequency and taking share from grocery and pharmacy sectors.

• Oracle: The company has addressed its capital expenditure concerns by securing $45 billion in funding. It is expected to benefit from potential IPOs of OpenAI and SpaceX in the long term.

Singapore REITs and Property

• Keppel DC REIT: Reported very strong results, beating IPO forecasts with committed occupancy at 98.5% and a significant 23% rental uplift for its SG1 renewal.

• Maple Tree Industrial Trust: Analysts are currently staying away as the REIT undergoes restructuring, including divesting non-performing US data centers and managing vacancy issues in its North American portfolio.

• CapitaLand Ascott Trust: Viewed as resilient due to its stable income sources (master leases/minimum guarantees) and attractive yield, with a DPU guidance of 6.1 cents.

• Prime US REIT: The decline in distributable income was clarified as a result of rent-free periods for new leases; currently, only 73% of the portfolio is contributing cash despite 83% occupancy. Analysts believe much of the negative sentiment is already priced in.

• CapitaLand Investment: Addressed rumors of a potential merger or acquisition involving MapleTree to reach a $200 billion AUM goal, though management states nothing is firmed up.

Other Notable Stocks

• Sea Ltd (Shopee): Shopee continues to lead in Southeast Asia, using its logistics and fintech integration to compete against Tik Tok Shop (live streaming focus) and Temu (aggressive pricing).

• SIA Engineering: Upgraded to "Buy" primarily due to recent share price weakness, despite a gestation period for its new Malaysian and Cambodian facilities.

• Genting Singapore: Reported a significant decline in VIP market share (from 40% to 20%) and is viewed as a "work in progress" until the completion of RWS 2.0 around 2030.

• SingPost: Management intends to keep and restructure SingPost Centre rather than selling it, aiming to turn around losses in its postal and logistics divisions.

Technical Analysis (TA) Highlights

• Nvidia & S&P 500: Both showed signs of potential short-term pullbacks or bearish reversal patterns (Evening Star).

• Keppel: Noted as being in an oversold position (RSI around 27), which historically preceded rebounds.

• DBS: Expected to see a pullback, with the next support level identified at $260.

• AEM: Likely to face a pullback after a strong rally, with a bearish candlestick appearing on high volume.

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PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary

 Dated: 11/05/2026 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq-I-ChHJog 

Presentation Summary

Major Technology Earnings

• Apple: Reported revenue growth of 17%—its fastest in four years—driven by strong iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo demand. While a $100 billion share repurchase was announced, the outlook remains neutral due to rising memory costs and uncertainty regarding direct AI monetization.

• Disney: Streaming revenue grew 13%, with margins reaching double digits for the first time. While linear networks continue to decline, the company is aggressively expanding its experiences segment, including growing its cruise fleet from 8 to 13 ships by 2031.

• Grab: Revenue met expectations, and profitability outperformed due to operational leverage in fintech and ads. Despite regulatory headwinds in Indonesia regarding commission caps, Grab is viewed as a long-term structural winner leveraging AI for efficiency.

• Palantir: Achieved exceptional growth with revenue up 85%, fueled by US commercial revenue nearly doubling. The company raised its guidance as more enterprises adopt its AI Platform (AIP) to automate operations.

• AMD: Data center revenue spiked 57% year-on-year. The firm is reportedly taking market share from Intel in server CPUs, and its target price was raised to $520 due to high visibility in AI-driven structural demand.

• Reddit: Earnings were below expectations, but ad performance remained resilient with 74% growth. High-margin data licensing deals with Google and OpenAI are expected to boost future demand.

Singapore Banking Analysis

The outlook for the Singapore banking sector is generally neutral, though high interest rates remain "NIM (Net Interest Margin) supportive".

• DBS: remains the most preferred bank due to healthy fee growth, stable margins, and a fixed dividend policy.

• OCBC: Reported record total income driven by wealth management and insurance. It is pivoting toward ASEAN growth, highlighted by the acquisition of HSBC Indonesia’s wealth portfolio.

• UOB: Viewed as the least preferred among the three due to weak fee momentum and rising non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Greater China region.

Singapore Sector Updates

• Construction: The sector has strong visibility through 2030, with 2026 contracts projected to be 61% higher than the 20-year average. While diesel price spikes pose a margin headwind, most players can pass costs to customers.

• Sheng Siong: Continues to gain market share as competitors exit the market. It has visibility for four new stores and is exploring private real estate transactions for further expansion.

• StarHub: Facing intense competition and revenue contraction across mobile, broadband, and entertainment segments.

• Venture: Seeing a lift from the AI wave, particularly in semiconductor equipment and data center networking products.

Market Strategy and Technicals

• Global Macro: The US economy appears healthy with strong job growth, particularly in healthcare. AI investment momentum is surging; the source notes SpaceX (likely referring to the broader Musk ecosystem) is investing heavily in computing capacity and wafer fabs.

• Technical Analysis: Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have hit new all-time highs but are nearing key trendline resistance levels, suggesting a possible near-term pullback. Conversely, the software sector (IGV) shows positive action after breaking out of an inverse head and shoulders formation.

Q&A Session

Technology and Semiconductors

• Micron: The analyst remains positive with a target price revision expected after upcoming earnings; the stock is currently trading at 12 times forward PE, which is lower than the 30-fold average of its AI chip peers.

• ARM: The stock price dropped following results due to supply constraints, as the company can only fulfill 1 billion of its 2 billion order commitments despite huge demand.

• Intel and Apple: The chip-making agreement between the two is viewed as positive for Intel because TSMC is at full capacity, and positive for Apple as it provides a secondary manufacturing source and negotiating leverage against TSMC.

• Qualcomm: The stock surged following an announcement that it is collaborating with OpenAI to develop an AI chip for smartphones, with mass manufacturing slated for 2028.

• Avi-Tech: This stock has seen a surge in share price because its major customer, Texas Instruments, is experiencing high demand for legacy chips used in data center infrastructure.

• Venture: While seeing an AI lift in about 30% to 40% of its portfolio, it is not considered a "pure" semiconductor play like AEM.

• Super Micro (SMCI): Technical analysis shows strength following a retest of resistance, with the potential to reach $39 to $40.

Regional Tech and Internet

• Grab: The potential merger with GoTo remains highly uncertain and politically sensitive in Indonesia due to concerns over market dominance. Financially, Grab's lending portfolio surged 130% year-on-year, and the company is targeting adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2026.

Singapore Banking Sector

• DBS: remains the most preferred bank with a target price of $61, favored for its fixed dividend per share, strong wealth management momentum, and stable margins.

• OCBC: The acquisition of HSBC Indonesia's wealth portfolio is part of a pivot toward ASEAN growth, with integration expected to complete in 2027.

• UOB: The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 3.5% in Greater China, which is a point of concern compared to its peers.

REITs and Real Estate

• Manulife US REIT: Operating performance is showing slight improvement with stabilized rent reversions at 0.3%, and the sale of the Figura asset is a step toward reducing debt.

• Prime US REIT: Results are expected to be stable with positive rent reversions and strong leasing momentum.

• Thakral: There is significant hidden potential for the company due to its Gurugram land aspirations in India.

Singapore Infrastructure and Industrials

• Construction & Materials: Direct beneficiaries of upcoming civil engineering tenders include OKP, Lian Beng, and Ley Choon. Less direct beneficiaries include dormitory operators like Centurion and Wee Hur, and material providers like BRC Asia and Pan United.

• SATS: Technical analysis suggests the stock remains weak in the short term, with potential support at $3.22.

• SIA Engineering: The chart remains weak, trading below the $2.33 to $2.38 breakdown level.

Other Notable Mentions

• IX Biopharma: The company is seeking emergency use authorization for Wafermine from the US Army and plans to monetize its broader portfolio of 40 products through a US-based joint venture.

• Geo Energy: Reported positive news regarding a major Czech investment in its infrastructure, though the exact quality of the valuation remains to be seen until specific funding amounts are confirmed.

• Riverstone: Results were negatively impacted by currency fluctuations and a margin squeeze in its electronics glove segment.

• Singtel: The target price is set at $5.35, though momentum may be dampened by weak economic environments in emerging markets.

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PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary

 Dated: 04/05/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/lFwK3AEMarw 

Presentation Summary

US Technology and "Hyperscalers"

A dominant theme across the US tech sector was the dramatic increase in capital expenditure (capex) to support AI infrastructure. Collectively, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon raised their 2026 capex guidance from 650 billion to 710 billion.

• Microsoft: Q3 2026 results showed healthy 18% revenue growth, led by Azure, which accelerated by 40%. While capex was raised to $190 billion for the year, the analysts believe revenue from Open AI-related backlogs will materialize meaningfully starting in 2027.

• Alphabet: Revenue grew 22%, driven by strong performances in Google Search and Cloud (which surged 63%). Despite a massive $35.7 billion quarterly capex, Alphabet is leveraging its "full-stack" AI advantage—from custom silicon to the Gemini model—to improve ad efficiency.

• Meta: Ad revenue grew a robust 33%, bolstered by the integration of Muse Spark, a new multi-model reasoning AI. However, analysts expressed concerns about Meta’s ability to monetize AI capacity compared to peers, leading to a focus on its "agentic commerce" initiatives.

• Amazon: AWS saw its fastest growth in 15 quarters (28%), driven by AI demand. A significant differentiator for Amazon is its in-house "custom silicon" chips, which provide a major margin advantage and cost savings in AI training.

Singapore Equities: Banks and REITs

The Singaporean market updates centered on resilient banking results and portfolio shifts within the REIT sector.

• DBS Bank: Q1 earnings met estimates, and the bank raised its dividend to 81 cents. Analysts prefer DBS among Singapore banks due to its clear capital return plan through 2027 and its record wealth management fees.

• CapitaLand Investment (CLI): Fee income rose 10%, and the company plans to launch a second S-REIT in China despite challenging operating conditions there.

• REIT Reconstitution: Several REITs are actively shifting their portfolios. First REIT is exiting Indonesia to focus on developed markets, while Mapletree Industrial Trust is divesting weaker US assets to redeploy capital into higher-quality data centers. Stoneweg is also aiming to increase its data center exposure to 15–25% by 2028.

Macro Outlook and Technical Analysis

• The "Godzilla" Semiconductor Cycle: Singapore's economy is "firing on all cylinders," with industrial production up 10% in March. This is driven by a massive semiconductor up-cycle, making Singapore a direct beneficiary of the hyperscalers' increased AI spending.

• US Macro: Warning signs of stagflation are emerging in the US, with slowing GDP (2%) and rising inflation (4.5% PC inflation) linked to energy shocks from the Middle East. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a "higher for longer" rate stance.

• Technical View: The S&P 500 continues to show bullish momentum after hitting new all-time highs, with resistance expected around the 7,270 to 7,380 range. Analysts expect S&P 500 and Bitcoin ETFs to outperform in the near term.

Q&A Session

Singapore Banks

• DBS: Analysts noted that while capital inflows from the UAE haven't spiked significantly, DBS would be the primary beneficiary of such trends due to its large presence and perceived trustworthiness.

• OCBC and UOB: These banks are expected to follow a similar pattern to DBS, with record wealth management fees and trading income potentially offsetting the compression in net interest margins.

Technology and Semiconductors

• Apple: The stock rallied due to a stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 cycle and its "AI investment light" approach compared to competitors who are spending heavily on capital expenditures.

• Nvidia: The stock remained relatively flat despite increased capex from "hyperscalers" because much of its growth was already priced in. Future catalysts may include sovereign AI investments from the Middle East or Europe.

• Qualcomm: Recently surged after bringing forward its timeline to ship custom AI solutions to hyperscalers by the end of 2026.

• AMD: Analysts expressed optimism for AMD's results, citing its continued capture of PC market share from Intel and the rising demand for CPUs driven by agentic AI workloads.

• Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix: Discussed in the context of a memory upcycle; a shortage is expected to persist into the second half of 2027 as new capacity only gradually comes online.

Singapore REITs and Property

• First REIT: Faced a target price downgrade due to an expected "income vacuum" and significant DPU drop following the divestment of its Indonesian hospitals.

• Stoneweg: The company is aiming to increase its data center exposure to 15–25% by 2028 through logistics-to-data-center conversions and investments in the Ionic platform.

• Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT): Its US portfolio has been a drag on performance because its data centers primarily serve enterprise users rather than the high-growth AI and cloud storage sectors.

• CapitaLand Investment (CLI): Plans to launch a second China S-REIT to facilitate capital recycling, despite the currently challenging retail property market in China.

• Parkway Life REIT: Strong rental growth from its Singapore portfolio is expected to offset temporary vacancies in its Japanese nursing home assets.

Consumer and Industrial Stocks

• Netflix vs. Spotify: Analysts compared the two, describing Netflix as a more mature "safer compounder" with proven monetization, while Spotify is in an earlier, higher-risk stage of its monetization journey despite its unique data moat.

• Yangzijiang Financial: The company is pivoting toward investing its cash reserves into maritime assets like tankers to achieve higher returns of 10–15%.

• Aztech Global: Seen as directionally turning around after securing new projects in the security and renewable energy sectors.

• SoilBuild: Viewed positively due to its track record with high-end semiconductor facilities and its attractive valuation relative to the broader construction sector.

Technical Analysis Highlights

The Q&A also touched on technical price actions for several counters:

• Singtel and Keppel were noted for showing signs of stabilization at key support levels.

• Mastercard showed post-earnings weakness, whereas Visa appeared technically stronger after a gap up.

• TJX was described as maintaining a steady, long-term uptrend despite recent range-bound behavior.