PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary

 Dated: 09/03/2026         Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiCptoqcUN4 

 Presentation Summary

Technology and E-commerce

• Zoom Communications: The company is focusing on enterprise revenue, which grew by 7%, driven by "Zoom Workplace" and new AI integrations like meeting summaries and follow-up actions. Earnings nearly doubled due to cost discipline and a successful strategic investment in Anthropic, though free cash flow is expected to be lower in the coming year due to database infrastructure costs.
• Sea Limited: While revenue was in line with expectations, the company is reinvesting heavily in Shopee’s logistics and loyalty programs, leading to flat EBITDA guidance that caused a cautious market reaction. Its gaming arm, Garena, remains durable with over 30% booking growth for Free Fire.

Real Estate and REITs

• City Developments Limited (CDL): CDL’s performance was boosted by significant capital gains from divestments like the South Beach sale. The company achieved record residential sales of $4.35 billion in FY25 and is pursuing a strategy of recycling capital by divesting underperforming assets in the UK and China.
• PropNex: Analysts expect slower earnings growth this year due to a lack of new residential launches (projected 8,800 units versus 11,400 previously). Despite this, PropNex maintains a dominant 60% market share in several segments and remains a strong cash generator.
• UI Boustead REIT: This new industrial REIT IPO features a diversified portfolio in Singapore and Japan. It has a guided FY27 dividend yield of 7.8%, which analysts noted is more attractive than its closest peers.

Construction and Industrial Sectors

• Soilbuild Con: Revenue surged 84% year-on-year, primarily driven by the large PSA supply chain hub project. While its order book dipped slightly, the outlook remains positive due to Singapore’s increased research and manufacturing budget.
• Ever Glory: Following its acquisition of Guthrie, the company is now one of Singapore’s largest M&E (Mechanical and Electrical) players. Its order book surged 135%, with upcoming opportunities in Changi Airport Terminal 5 and new hospital contracts.
• Frencken: Although semiconductor orders were soft as customers prepared for new technology (high-NA EUV machines), a rebound is expected in the second half of the year.

Commodities, Shipping, and Logistics

• CNMC Gold: Revenue doubled due to a rally in gold prices and a 60% increase in production capacity. Analysts remain bullish on gold despite a potential tax liability in Malaysia.
• SATS: Performance was supported by a 7.3% increase in cargo volumes, particularly in time-sensitive semiconductor and AI-related cargo. However, its US ground handling operations are facing pressure from lower volumes and tariffs.
• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: The company saw a 30% jump in earnings and holds a massive $15 billion in new orders, providing strong revenue visibility through 2028.

General Market Outlook

• Tactical Winners: In the face of rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, analysts identify oil and gas service providers, tanker owners (like Yangzijiang Maritime), and ST Engineering as potential beneficiaries. SGX is also expected to benefit from increased market volatility and higher trading volumes.
• Consumer Trends: Sheng Siong continues to see record gross margins (32%) and is expanding its footprint into retail malls. Conversely, ComfortDelGro is seeing pressure in its Singapore taxi business as its fleet declines due to aggressive competition and incentives from Grab.

Q&A Session

1. Real Estate and REITs

• UI Boustead REIT IPO: Analysts noted that UI Boustead appears more attractive than its closest peer, A-PAC REIT, offering a higher forward dividend yield of 7.8% (versus 7%) and a lower Price-to-NAV of approximately 1.0x. While there is a risk that the price could dip below the 88-cent IPO level due to short-term "flipping" by investors, its valuation remains competitive.
• Singapore REITs Outlook: Despite "sticky inflation" and rising energy costs potentially reducing the number of Fed rate cuts, analysts remain bullish on Singapore REITs, still expecting at least one rate cut in the near term.
• Wee Hur: Wee Hur's recent share price decline was attributed to profit-taking after a significant pre-earnings spike, though its core net profit rose 130%. The company expects a 60% increase in worker dormitory capacity this year.

2. Banking and Finance

• Exposure to Middle East: Local banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) have no direct loan exposure to the Middle East, though they maintain some wealth management presence in Dubai. UOB has the highest relative risk regarding SME provisions but has already built a $600 million buffer to mitigate this.
• Capital Returns: Dividends and buyback commitments are considered safe because the funds have already been set aside. However, OCBC may be slower to commit to additional future capital returns, preferring to hold excess capital for potential M&A.
• Interest Margins: Higher-for-longer interest rates, driven by inflation concerns, are expected to benefit Net Interest Margins (NIM), with DBS positioned as the primary beneficiary.

3. Construction and Industrial

• SoilBuild Con: The 15% year-on-year decline in its order book is viewed as a normalization following a massive $600 million PSA contract win. The long-term outlook is supported by a 30% increase in Singapore's research and innovation budget (RIIE 2030).
• Pan United: While higher energy costs and depreciation expenses may pressure short-term profits, margins are expanding due to in-house technology that improves operational efficiency (e.g., reducing truck queuing times).

4. Energy and Commodities

• Tactical Winners of Oil Spikes: Beneficiaries of rising oil prices include oil and gas producers (Rex, RH Petrogress), shipyards (Yangzijiang Shipbuilding), and palm oil companies like Wilmar, which see increased demand for biodiesel.
• Airlines: Conversely, airlines are cited as the sector most severely affected by fuel price surges.
• Gold Outlook: Analysts remain bullish on gold prices due to geopolitical instability and consistent buying by central banks, such as China's treasury.

5. Transportation and Logistics

• ComfortDelGro: The decline in the Singapore taxi fleet is a significant concern. Because the taxi business is a "pure profit" rental model, losing even a small number of drivers to competitors like Grab directly impacts the bottom line.
• SATS: While exposed to Europe and the Middle East, the impact on SATS is mitigated because its contracts are tied to global airline networks (e.g., servicing Emirates worldwide) rather than just regional hubs.

6. High-Risk Counters

• Yangzijiang Financial: The outlook is described as "pretty grim" due to a 50% Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio in its China-based loan book, leading to significant recent losses.

 

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PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary

Dated: 02/03/2026         Source: https://youtu.be/4kxpGT4EPoM 

 Presentation Summary

Technology Sector Highlights

• Salesforce (CRM): The company met revenue expectations for Q4 2026, while adjusted earnings per share ($3.82) beat guidance. Growth was driven by the Platform Cloud (up 37%), which includes Agentforce and Slack. A new metric, Agentic Work Units (AWU), showed a 57% quarter-over-quarter increase, demonstrating actual enterprise value creation from AI. However, operating margins fell by 1.5% due to higher R&D and marketing costs. The rating is Buy with a target price (TP) of $253.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Revenue was within expectations, but profits beat estimates due to sustained margins despite a 42% surge in memory prices. Nvidia successfully maintained margins by bundling products into system-level racks (GB200/GB300). Networking revenue jumped 2.6x year-over-year. The stock was upgraded to Buy with a $120 TP.
• AEM Holdings: Reported an FY25 turnaround with a 32% increase in PATMI. Optimism is fueled by a potential new contract with a hyperscaler customer and increased orders from Intel.
• Venture Corporation: Upgraded to Accumulate. While revenue has been declining since 2017, margins are at record highs, and a rebound is expected in FY26 driven by next-generation Philip Morris products and data center networking demand.

Singapore Banking Sector

• UOB: Q4 earnings were slightly below estimates due to lower net interest income (NII), which fell 4% following a 16-basis point margin compression. A positive highlight was the 10% recovery in fee income. The rating is Neutral with a $37 TP.
• OCBC: Earnings also fell slightly below estimates, but non-interest income surged 37%, primarily driven by wealth management. Management remains committed to a $2.5 billion capital return plan. The rating is Accumulate with a $21.50 TP.

Industrial and Engineering Stocks

• ST Engineering: Upgraded to Buy following strong results where commercial aerospace EBIT jumped 25% due to increased maintenance and engine part production. Geopolitical tensions are expected to provide a significant defense tailwind, as the company aims to double international defense sales.
• Pan-United: Revenue increased 16% and PATMI surged 35%, driven by higher volumes and project take-ups. The company is utilizing its AiR digital platform to optimize truck allocation and lower costs. The rating is Buy with a $1.73 TP.
• Sembcorp Industries (SCI): Maintained at Accumulate despite a 25% drop in gas earnings, as renewables capacity grew 19% and a pending $5 billion Australian acquisition is expected to be earnings-accretive.

REITs and Aviation

• S-REITs: The sector saw mixed performance; overseas commercial and hospitality REITs stood out, while retail was impacted by holiday outflows. Broadly, FY25 results met expectations with 2% DPU growth. Retail REITs benefit from high occupancy, while the office sector sees a "flight to quality".
• Singapore Airlines (SIA): Passenger traffic increased 6.3%, but air cargo revenue fell 5%. Associate losses from Air India increased due to new labor laws. The rating is Neutral with a $7 TP.

Macro and Technical Outlook

• Technical Pulse: The S&P 500 is in a sideways consolidation phase. Analysts remain bullish on US Treasury bonds, gold, and oil for March, while Bitcoin remains in a downtrend.

 

Q&A Session

1. Financials and Banking Sector

• Top Dividend Pick: DBS is highlighted as the best choice for investors seeking stable dividends and a predictable stock price. Unlike its peers, DBS provides fixed dividend-per-share (DPS) guidance through 2027 and pays quarterly.
• Capital Adequacy: All three major Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) maintain similar CET1 ratios of approximately 15%. However, DBS is more transparent about its capital return plans.
• OCBC and Great Eastern (GE): GE remains a positive tailwind for OCBC, though it contributes less than 8% of total income. Management has stated there are no plans to privatize GE in the near term (3–5 years).
• Geopolitical Impact: The conflict involving the US and Iran is expected to have a muted impact on local banks. If the situation leads to higher-for-longer interest rates, it could actually benefit net interest margins.

2. Technology and Semiconductors

• AEM vs. Frencken: AEM Holdings is viewed as having a superior growth forecast compared to Frencken. This is driven by a potential new contract with a hyperscaler and stronger profit growth. Frencken's recent performance has been lackluster as a key customer (ASML) reorganizes orders for next-generation EUV systems.
• Salesforce AI Positioning: Salesforce is considered well-positioned in the AI software market through its "Agentforce" platform. Analysts believe the company is less vulnerable to AI disruption because of its clear three-level monetization strategy (premium SKUs, consumption credits, and seat expansion).
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO): Nvidia’s stock drop post-results was attributed to a general sector re-rating and concerns over the sustainability of hyperscaler capital expenditure, despite strong fundamentals. Broadcom is expected to benefit from high demand for AI networking and internet switches.

3. REITs and Real Estate

• Lendlease Global Commercial REIT: The rights issue to acquire the remaining 30% of PLQ Mall is viewed as a strategic move. Analysts suggest opting in if investors believe in the long-term growth of Singapore suburban retail.
• US Office Market: A "buy" rating is maintained for Prime US REIT based on signs that the US office market is bottoming out, with stabilizing occupancy and lack of new supply.
• Residential Outlook: PropNex and APAC Realty saw share price pressure due to guidance suggesting softer new home sales for the remainder of 2026.

4. Industrials, Energy, and Aviation

• Building Materials: Both Pen-United and BRC Asia are identified as prime beneficiaries of the ongoing Singapore construction upcycle, which is expected to peak next year.
• Gold Stocks: Analysts prefer miners like CNMC Goldmine over retail gold concepts (e.g., MoneyMax). CNMC offers higher upside due to production growth from its new underground mining facility and exploration at new sites.
• Oil and Geopolitics: The team views major sell-offs in oil and semiconductor stocks as buying opportunities, betting that current Middle Eastern tensions will be short-lived (1–2 weeks). Keppel may benefit indirectly through its legacy rig assets.
• Aviation: SIA maintains a Neutral rating with a $7 target price. While fuel costs are a risk, SIA’s hedging policy provides significant protection. SATS is viewed as structurally stronger following its global acquisition of WFS.

5. Technical Analysis (TA) Highlights

• Nvidia (NVDA): Shows a potential "head and shoulders" pattern; a break below $171 would signal further short-term weakness.
• SIA: Tested resistance at $6.65, which is now acting as support.
• ComfortDelGro: Remains range-bound between $1.45 and $1.51.

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Companies, sectors, countries and regions affected in “THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS”

Source: 

THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic 

Companies, sectors, countries and regions affected in “THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS”.

Negatively Affected Companies and Sectors

• ServiceNow: Experienced significant revenue destruction and a collapse in net new ACV growth as customers cut human staff, leading to the cancellation of seat-based licenses.

• Zendesk: Became the "smoking gun" for the private credit crisis after defaulting on a $5 billion direct lending facility when AI agents rendered its human-centric ticketing and support model obsolete.

• American Express (AXP): Cited as the bank hit hardest by a combination of white-collar workforce reductions gutting its customer base and AI agents routing around credit card interchange fees.

• DoorDash and Uber Eats: Their "habitual intermediation" moats were destroyed as AI agents optimized for the lowest fees and fastest delivery across multiple platforms, compressing margins to nearly nothing.

• Software and SaaS Providers: Companies like Salesforce, Monday.com, Zapier, and Asana faced intense pressure as enterprises used agentic coding tools to replicate their functionality or demand massive renewal discounts,,.

• Payment and Finance Firms: Mastercard, Visa, Synchrony, Capital One, and Discover saw revenue pressure or stock price declines as agents bypassed traditional transaction fees in favor of stablecoins.

• Alternative Asset Managers and Insurers: Firms like Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, and Brookfield faced systemic risks as the private credit market defaulted. Their affiliated insurers—Athene, Global Atlantic, and American Equity—faced downgrades and capital scrutiny,,.

• Indian IT Services: TCS, Infosys, and Wipro faced accelerated contract cancellations as the marginal cost of AI coding agents undercut the cost of human developers in India.

• Travel and Real Estate Platforms: Booking.com, Expedia, and Zillow were disrupted as AI agents bypassed their platforms to assemble itineraries or facilitate property transactions with minimal commissions.

• AI Labs (Anthropic and OpenAI): While economically successful, they faced severe social backlash, including three-week blockades by the "Occupy Silicon Valley" movement.

Negatively Affected Countries and Regions

• India: Perhaps the most negatively impacted nation, India saw its IT services export model collapse. The rupee fell 18% against the dollar, and the country was forced into "preliminary discussions" with the IMF for financial assistance.

• United States: Faced a systemic "Intelligence Displacement Spiral" leading to 10.2% unemployment, a 38% drawdown in the S&P 500, and a fiscal crisis as tax receipts plummeted.

• U.S. "Tech-Heavy" Cities: San Francisco, Seattle, Austin, and Manhattan experienced sharp declines in home values (up to 11%) and spikes in mortgage delinquencies as high-earning white-collar professionals lost their jobs.

• U.S. "Blue States": States dependent on income tax faced default risk in their municipal bonds as the professional class's income was structurally impaired.