Dated: 30/03/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/vNPIEjdZTno
Presentation Summary
Semiconductor Industry Outlook
The semiconductor sector is entering a growth upcycle driven by increased capital expenditure (capex) from hyperscalers like Google, Meta, and Amazon, who have guided a 72% year-on-year spike in AI infrastructure spending. Key insights include:
Processors and Memory: Revenue for processors and memory chips accelerated for the first time after several quarters of deceleration. Nvidia expects $1 trillion in GPU revenue through 2027, while Micron is considered better insulated from Middle East conflicts due to its large US presence and access to helium production.
Equipment and Foundry: ASML is highlighted as being better positioned than peers to capture memory equipment orders due to its EUV technology. TSMC has begun ramping up its 2nm chips, with strong revenue acceleration in early 2026.
Recommendations: The presenters maintain a buy recommendation for Nvidia, AMD, and Micron, citing relatively undervalued forward P/E ratios.
Company-Specific Updates
Nanofilm: A recent site visit to Shanghai revealed that the company is diversifying its customer base, with its largest smartphone customer (Customer A) now accounting for 60% of revenue, down from 78%. The company is seeing growth in advanced materials for consumer electronics and industrial applications, and it expects a tailwind from China’s push for semiconductor self-sufficiency.
Raffles Education: The firm is focused on aggressive deleveraging, reducing net debt from over $300 million in 2021 to $177 million. Strategically, they are shifting focus from China—due to regulatory and demographic challenges—toward ASEAN expansion, specifically in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Q&M Dental: The company has proposed its most aggressive acquisitions to date, including a $130 million deal in Australia that could double its earnings. The acquisitions include long-term 15-year service agreements and share moratoriums for vendors.
Macroeconomic and Technical Analysis
Market Technicals: The S&P 500 recently marked its longest losing streak since 2022. Historical data on oil-related conflicts suggest markets typically take about two months to bottom with an average drawdown of nearly 10%.
Stagflation Risks: The presenters warned of a potential "steep stagflation" environment characterized by low growth and high interest rates. In this scenario, REITs are expected to be the most negatively impacted due to falling rents and high interest costs, while banks are viewed as beneficiaries due to rising net interest income and excess cash.
Capex and Energy: Beyond AI, energy security and military spending are identified as the next major drivers for global capital expenditure. Gold remains a positive interest as central banks continue to accumulate it as a reserve asset.
Singapore Market Performance
Singapore’s industrial production remains robust, particularly in electronics and semiconductor manufacturing, which saw year-to-date growth of 24% and 30%, respectively. Despite global tensions, local interest rates are creeping up but remain lower than those in other developed markets.
Q&A Session
US Technology and "Magnificent 7" Stocks
Micron: Analysts discussed the impact of Google’s "Turboquant" algorithm, which aims to reduce memory needs; however, they believe this may actually expand the total market for memory by making AI technology more accessible. Micron is also considered better insulated from Middle East conflicts compared to peers due to its significant US operations.
Nvidia: Remains a top pick due to its dominant market share in the AI GPU space and its aggressive revenue guidance of $1 trillion through 2027.
Microsoft: Despite recent market volatility, analysts are positive because of strong earnings visibility, increasing order books, and high demand for Microsoft Copilot and Azure cloud services.
Amazon: Ranked as the top pick among the Magnificent 7 due to its resilient business mix and the fact that AWS is already driving significant monetization.
Apple: Viewed as the most vulnerable of the group due to its heavy reliance on China-based manufacturing and hardware shipping.
Adobe: While facing competition from smaller AI tools, analysts remain favorable due to its "sticky" enterprise user base and the copyright safety provided by its licensed Adobe Stock content.
Alphabet (Google) and Meta: Fundamentals are considered intact despite recent court rulings, as advertisers continue to allocate large budgets to these platforms.
Singapore and Regional Stocks
Nanofilm: Analysts are positive about a turnaround story as the founding CEO has returned to lead the company. The company is actively diversifying into the semiconductor back-end space to reduce customer concentration risk.
Q&M Dental: The company is pursuing aggressive acquisitions in Singapore and Australia to reach a scale that would attract private equity funds.
Sembcorp Industries: Identified as a beneficiary of rising oil and gas prices because its gas trading arm sells LNG at spot rates.
Keppel: Regarded as a defensive stock because its growth is tied to long-term infrastructure, data centers, and power plants rather than volatile energy prices.
China Aviation Oil (CAO): Analysts maintain a bullish outlook as net profit recently rose 68% and its core business of supplying jet fuel to Chinese airports remains strong.
Oiltek: Benefiting from the energy security narrative, as the conflict increases demand for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) solutions.
Centurion: Considered sheltered from regional conflicts; it may benefit if the Singapore government increases public construction projects to support GDP during a recession.
DBS: The impact of its participation in an Indian healthcare IPO is expected to be minimal for overall earnings.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
Weakness: Technical indicators suggest continued downside or weakness for Tesla, Broadcom, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, and Wee Hur.
Strength/Uptrend: Stocks showing strong technical momentum include Pan United, Micro Mechanics, Oiltek, and Bank of China.
Sideways/Range-bound: DBS, Singtel, City Developments, Sheng Siong, and ComfortDelGro are currently viewed as trading within specific price ranges or moving sideways.
