PSR Strategy & Stock Picks 4Q2026

 Dated: 17/10/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/IU-cIpo3Cig

Presentation Summary

1. Market Review & Macro Themes

• Q3 2026 Performance: The Singapore market was driven primarily by a +30% single-quarter rally in banking stocks. In contrast, REITs were heavily derated to multi-year lows (below COVID-19 levels) due to high interest rates, while the consumer sector (e.g., Thai Beverage) lagged due to emerging market inflation.

• Equities Development Programme (EQDP): Tranches of funds ($1.1 billion remaining) are boosting liquidity in small/mid-caps and encouraging institutional investors to take ~5% conviction stakes in companies.

• Macro Drivers & Anxieties:

• AI Boom & Exports: Semiconductor and electronics exports are surging across Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, with 40–50% of US GDP growth linked to AI.

• Normalizing Yields: Rising bond yields reflect strong capital demand for AI; Singapore interest rates remain lower than Japan's, providing support for local real estate.

• Energy Volatility: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil and jet fuel prices, which in turn has raised shipping charter rates.

2. Technical Outlook & Stock Picks

• Market Outlook: The market remains bifurcated, with large caps outperforming while small/mid-caps remain lackluster.

• Technical Picks:

• Large-Cap: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (uptrend intact within a rising wedge, price target $5.70).

• Mid-Cap: Geo Energy Resources (trending along its 50-day SMA, price target $0.63).

3. Banking Sector: "Floor, Fees, and Firepower"

• Key Themes: Local interest rates have hit a floor. Moving forward, ROE growth will be driven by wealth management/fee income (supported by growing AUM) rather than net interest margin (NIM) expansion. Banks also possess excess capital ("firepower") for dividend payouts.

• Stock Recommendations:

• DBS (Accumulate, TP $85.00): Top sector pick; upgraded guidance, low funding costs (fixed deposits locked at ~1%), and a committed fixed dividend per share through FY27.

• OCBC (Accumulate, TP $33.20): Leading loan growth (+12% YoY) and wealth management fees (+45%), with potential special dividends of 11–18 cents.

• UOB (Neutral, TP $43.00): Lags peers in wealth management fees due to a smaller wealth AUM base ($200B), but offers upside if interest rates remain elevated.

4. REITs & Property Sector: "Keep Calm and Collect Rent"

• Key Themes: Although REITs have been derated by rapid Fed rate hikes, forward yield spreads (~3.6–3.7%) and an expected sector DPU growth of ~3% in FY26 signal underlying value.

• Stock Recommendations:

• Stoneweg Europe Staple Trust (Buy, TP €1.89): Manager internalization will save €2.6M annually, plus data center upside via Ionics and a ~9% yield.

• Elite UK REIT: High ~10% yield backed by UK government tenants and plans for data center/PBSA conversions.

• Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLCT) (Initiation, Buy): 75% logistics/industrial portfolio with strong rental reversions (+12% to +24%), low 35% gearing, and 6.8% yield.

• City Developments Limited (CDL): Unveiled "GET+" strategy (2027–2029) targeting $5B investments and $6B divestments, with a 35% dividend payout ratio (~30 cents over 3 years).

• Thakral (Buy, TP $2.02): Conglomerate planning to list its lifestyle business (120M–180M valuation); stakes in Gem Life (228M)andBeautyTech(53M) exceed its current market cap.

5. Small/Mid-Cap & Tech Initiations

• Ever Glory: Largest M&E contractor in Singapore with a $1B+ order book post-Gatri acquisition; key driver in Changi T5, runway lighting, and hospital projects.

• Frencken: Benefiting from surging capex at TSMC ($62B) and front-end equipment partners (ASML, US vendors).

• JEP Holdings: 80% owned by UMS; expanding from aerospace precision parts into mass-producing specialized plastic components for semiconductor advanced packaging.

• Nanofilm Technologies (Initiation, Buy, TP $1.20): Recovery expected via foldable smartphone hinges for "Customer Z", PCB drill bits, and anti-static coatings.

• Raffles Education (Initiation, Buy, TP $0.20): Redeploying $500M gross proceeds from China asset sales into expanding Southeast Asian international K-12 schools (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia) while reducing debt by >60%.

• AvePoint (Initiation, Accumulate, TP $20.00): SaaS enterprise software providing data security, compliance, and governance across Microsoft, AWS, and Google AI environments.

6. Model Portfolio & Strategy Picks

• Geo Energy Resources: Catalysts include H2 production jump (+50%), $10/ton cost reductions via its new toll road, and toll road monetization.

• IX BioPharma: Near-term milestones around Phase 3 and Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for sublingual military drugs backed by the US Department of Defense.

• Oiltek: Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supplier leveraging palm oil waste in Malaysia.

• Model Portfolio Updates: Replaced Stoneweg with Singtel due to mobile price repairs, data center monetization/listings, and Nxera GPU-as-a-service expansion.

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Q&A Session

DBS: Recent price pullback is not seen as a distribution/exit phase by institutions; 100-day moving average support (~$72) remains intact, keeping the long-term uptrend healthy.

City Developments Limited: Investor disappointment over its strategic review stemmed from a lack of explicit share buyback announcements and confusion regarding the $5B investment plan (which includes 3B in Singapore GLS sites). Analysts maintained their positive stance due to deep RNAV discount (21 RNAV vs ~$5 share price). 

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT: Share price pressure is driven by macro interest rate headwinds and elevated Singapore business park vacancies (>20%).

Keppel DC REIT: Weakness caused by short-term market digestion of a 12% private placement ($2.10 placement price) and liquidity absorption from the AirTrunk IPO; underlying Singapore data center fundamentals remain strong with 30–40% renewal rate hikes.

Sheng Siong: Downgraded in July due to high valuation (~28x P/E). Near-term margin risks include headcount/utility costs from its new $500M distribution center and electricity re-contracting.

SIA: Short-term earnings pressure due to high jet fuel/crude oil prices from Middle East tension. Long-term operations remain strong with industry-leading hedging policies and low cost-per-seat metrics.

AEM Holdings & Frencken: Both expected to track US tech sentiment; orders are ramping via major foundry, packaging, and equipment clients, with a bigger DOV pull-in expected in 2027.

Ultra Green: Oversold following FDA approval for generic Indian competitor Zidus. Ultra Green's strong brand and ~70%+ US hospital group purchasing (GPO) market share should defend revenues.

CNMC Goldmine: Shift from open-pit to underground mining (Manson's Lode & New Farm) will double/triple gold grades by 2027, offsetting broader gold price volatility.

Wilmar International: Negatively impacted by weak Chinese consumer demand, crushing margins, and regulatory issues in Indonesia; analysts suggested direct plantation plays (e.g., First Resources) instead.

LHN: Sale and leaseback of Coliwoo Midtown at a 4% cap rate was viewed positively as it allows LHN to expand its co-living franchise asset-light.

SingPost: Lacks strong near-term catalysts; characterized as a "property mall with Ninja Van attached," with upside dependent on ongoing asset restructuring/disposals.

Nam Cheong & Marco Polo Marine: Highlighted as beneficiaries of rising oil prices driving offshore oil & gas capex.

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PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary

 Dated: 05/10/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/0w_Bnk_FgFM     

Presentation Summary

1. Micron Technology — Q4 Results & Sector Outlook

• Financial Results: Fourth-quarter revenue and net profit (PATMI) met expectations, driven by rising Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for DRAM and NAND memory amidst ongoing supply shortages.

• Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs): Micron signed 10 new SCAs in Q4, bringing the total to 26. These long-term contracts are projected to account for over 35% of revenue through 2030/2031. SCAs feature strict terms, including take-or-pay contracted volumes (or a 20% deposit penalty) and price floors to protect against down-cycle impacts.

• Capital Expenditure & Supply Outlook: First-half FY27 capex guidance was raised by over 60% to fund fab expansion across the US (Idaho), Singapore, and Taiwan. Management expects memory shortages to worsen over the next two years.

• Share Buyback Program: Following the expiration of the two-year Chips Act restriction on December 9, Micron plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders via buybacks. The base-case estimate projects ~$70 billion in returns, potentially boosting EPS by ~6%.

• Recommendation: BUY rating maintained with an increased target price of $1,950.

2. City Developments Limited (CDL) — Strategic Review ("GET+" Strategy)

• Strategic Overview: CDL unveiled its 3-year "GET+" strategy (FY27–FY29) focusing on four core sectors: Residential, Commercial, Hospitality, and Living.

• Key Financial Targets:

• Dividend Payout: Maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 35% of reported PATMI annually.

• Deleveraging: Reduce net gearing from ~75% (as of 1H26) down to 55% by FY29.

• Capital Recycling: Plan for $6 billion in asset divestments (targeting >1billionin gains,translating to ~ 0.35/share in potential dividends over 3 years) alongside $5 billion in growth investments.

• Fund Management: Double Funds Under Management (FUM) from $5 billion to $10 billion by FY29 via a dedicated fund management platform.

• Asset Allocation:

• Growth ($5B): 60% Singapore, 30% China/Japan, 10% other markets.

• Divestments ($6B): 45% Commercial, 30% Hospitality (divesting 20% / $1.8B of owned hotels), 20% Legacy Residential/other (e.g., UK sites), and 5% Living (e.g., Australia). CDL plans a complete exit from non-hospitality sectors in Australia.

• Market Reaction: CDL's stock fell ~15% post-announcement due to market disappointment over a lack of explicit ROE targets, clear dividend paths, and execution risks.

• Recommendation: BUY rating maintained with an unchanged target price.

3. Technical Analysis — S&P 500 & ETF Monthly Review

• S&P 500: Down 0.2% last week but holding key gap support at 7,685–7,710. Short-term resistance is identified at 7,780–7,820.

• Asset Class Trends: September was generally weak across asset classes (top gainer: Bitcoin ETF BTO +5.4%; top loser: Gold ETF GDF -6.7%). Sideways consolidation is expected in October for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, Oil, and Bitcoin, while Gold, Singapore Equities, and the Hang Seng Index may extend weakness.

• Market Breadth Indicator: The S&P 500 triggered a rare breadth indicator where fewer than 25% of constituents traded above their 50-day SMA while remaining in a broader bull market. Historically, this signal yields positive forward returns: +1.1% on average after 1 week, +10.6% after 6 months (100% win rate across past 10 cases), and close to +16% after 12 months.

4. Singapore Weekly Macro & Market Strategy

• Singapore & Regional Macro:

• PMI & Bank Loans: Singapore manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in nearly 8 years. Bank loan growth accelerated to a record 13.5% YoY (double last year's 6%), led by strong manufacturing credit demand.

• Semiconductor Exports: South Korea's September semiconductor export value jumped 263% YoY.

• US Macro: US payroll growth was softer than expected, wage growth decelerated to a 7-year low, and Core PCE came in better than expected at 3.4%.

• Equity Market Strategy & EQDP: Following a challenging September (25 out of 30 STI constituents posted losses), October looks tactically more favorable. The Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) continues to act as a structural catalyst for local small/mid-caps, expanding Singapore-dedicated equity fund sizes from $1.2B to $5B (e.g., OCBC's Singapore fund jumped from $200M to $2B).

• Sector Focus: Top preferred sectors for small/mid-cap EQDP flows are Semiconductors and Oil & Gas / Energy.

• Model Portfolio Changes: Removed Stoneweg European REIT (SDERT) due to interest-rate drag and added Singtel.

• 
  

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Q&A Session

Singapore & Regional Equities

• City Developments Limited (CDL): Addressed why CDL underperformed relative to Hongkong Land post-review. Unlike Hongkong Land (which set explicit $10B asset sales and a 20% share buyback target), CDL planned to reinvest $5B of its $6B divestments into growth without share buybacks or explicit ROE targets, causing investor confusion and persistent RNAV discount de-rating. Divestment details for China (commercial exit, focusing on upper-tier residential) and the UK ($800M legacy residential/commercial sites) were clarified.

• Hongkong Land: Highlighted as a positive benchmark due to its explicit $10B asset sale targets, 20% commitment to share buybacks, and executive compensation tied directly to capital recycling.

• Singapore Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB): Loan growth is primarily driven by manufacturing, data centers, tech, and renewables. DBS and OCBC are outperforming UOB due to superior wealth management fee income and stronger HNW client capture.

• Singapore Exchange (SGX): Plunged ~6% on 4x average volume following a broker downgrade from JP Morgan to Neutral (matching earlier downgrades by Macquarie and Philip Securities) due to stretched valuation multiples despite solid business fundamentals.

• Singtel: Added back to the model portfolio due to operational strength, mobile tariff recovery across Singapore, Australia, and Thailand, and upcoming data center capacity expansion/monetization in Tuas (Bharti Airtel makes up ~40% of RNAV).

• Stoneweg European REIT (SDERT): Proposed a €122M internalization of its REIT manager and acquisition of its sponsor's property management platform. The transaction is estimated to be ~6% DPU accretive (~3% if the property management platform is excluded).

• Soilbuild Construction & Pan-United: Maintained a $1.20 target price for Soilbuild Construction; elevated diesel prices weigh on main contractors, but private sector building demand is up +25% YTD. Pan-United's target price was also maintained on expected progress payments for Changi Terminal 5 and HDB BTO projects.

• Geo Energy Resources: Recent share price weakness was attributed to weak Q4–Q2 earnings hit by tax revisions and Indonesian coal purchasing monitoring regulations via the Danaharta agency. The analyst remains bullish for FY27 on a projected production increase to 15 million tonnes.

• CNMC Goldmine: Trading weakly due to high bond yields competing with gold and elevated diesel costs (20–30% of underground mining operating costs).

• Ultra Green: Maintained target price despite board changes. Operations are pivoting toward low-cost handheld surgical cameras targeting non-US / rest-of-world markets where competitor Zydus cannot match pricing.

• Valuetronics: Maintained Accumulate rating ($1.24 target price). Sluggish near-term earnings are expected due to rising Vietnam tax rates after tax allowance expirations, though supported by $300M in cash returned via share buybacks.

• Marco Polo Marine: Market concerns center around potential timeline slippage on its $100M+ 2-year Taiwanese seismic vessel contract.

• Q&M Dental Group: Legal and compliance procedures are underway for its acquisition of Chinese dental clinics at a $0.70 share issuance price.

• KSH Holdings: Trades below book value despite high occupancy (95% at Middle Road), as the market treats it as an interest-rate-sensitive property play.

• IX BioPharma: Executed a $1.7M debt-to-equity swap at 56 cents/share (vs. 8 cents book value); immaterial to market cap but generates a positive one-off accounting paper gain and saves cash.

• SREITs Sector: Down ~13% YTD and trading at 0.85x P/NAV due to expectations of one final Fed rate hike and cap rate expansion.

US & Global Tech / Equities

• SpaceX: Maintained SELL recommendation. While Starship and Starlink core businesses perform well, heavy capex and losses in its folded AI division drag down overall profitability. Upcoming share unlocks (Q3 results and the 180-day lockup ending Dec 8) create supply overhangs.

• Tesla: Negative stance maintained. Although Q3 deliveries (486k) beat consensus by 25k on European registration recovery (+50%) and inventory drawdowns, trailing 12-month vehicle sales remain flat/down 7% YoY. Tesla continues to lose market share to Chinese EV competitors like BYD, and the market is pricing in long-term speculative projects (Cybercab, Robotaxi, Optimus).

• Microsoft: Trading strongly above $500 driven by Azure cloud growth accelerating to 43%, capex restraint relative to hyperscaler peers, and rising monetization of Office 365/E5/CoPilot seats.

• Broadcom: Trades at ~28x forward P/E (vs. peer average ~40x). The $40 billion AI contract deal with Anthropic is expected to revitalize sentiment.

• Nvidia: Announced the Open Agent Safety Platform for AI agents. Clarified that this complements rather than directly competes with pure-play cybersecurity platforms like Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike.

• AppLovin: Target price maintained at $610. Short-term pressure stems from a lawsuit against Unity Software over unauthorized data collection and AI advertising model (AXON) rollout timing, offset by strong >50% operating income growth.

• Alphabet (Google): Gemini 4's initial rollout had a muted share price impact because access is restricted to trusted defenders rather than a full consumer/enterprise launch. Fundamental monetization will depend on enterprise client adoption and ad integration.

• Meta Platforms & OpenAI: Compared Meta Muse (everyday consumer tasks integrated into WhatsApp) against OpenAI Dots (enterprise/professional productivity workflows). Meta Muse is viewed as a solid monetization tool, though adoption will take time due to privacy and platform partnership hurdles.

• SK Hynix: October 7 marks the post-90-day unlock date for ADS/shares. Parent SK Group holds 20.5% (close to the 20% minimum Korean regulatory limit), meaning parent selling volume will be constrained, though the ~40% ADS premium over Korean counters poses short-term price pressure.

• Netflix: 1H US engagement fell 8.6% (global engagement rose +2%) due to uneven slate timing (facing tough comparisons against Squid Game/Stranger Things) and structural screen-time competition from YouTube (14.2% US TV viewing share) and TikTok.

Technical Analysis Counters (Q&A Segment)

• Frencken Group: Positive recovery holding support at $2.64 (5/10 SMAs); resistance at 2.72–2.75, next at 2.81–2.82.

• AEM Holdings: Positive uptrend making higher highs and lows; support at 10.00–10.20, resistance at $10.65, next target 11.00–11.50.

• Aztech Global / Ad Value Tech: Sharp pullback breaking below 100 SMA ($0.158); key support at $0.138, resistance at 0.151–0.157.

• Ever Glory: Sideways/weak momentum; support at 0.765–0.78, resistance at 0.79–0.81.

• CSC Holdings: Range-bound; support at $0.123, resistance at 0.127–0.130.

• ESR-LOGOS REIT: Downtrend continuing; resistance at 2.07–2.10, psychological support around $2.00.

• Ping An SDR: Weak trend with lower highs; testing $4.25 support (potential breakdown to 4.05–4.10).

• Johnson & Johnson: Range breakdown; testing support at 250–253.

• Eli Lilly: Range pullback; resistance at $1,187, support at $1,110.

• Ross Stores: Short-term breakdown below $232; next support at $222, followed by 217–218.

• Walmart: Breakdown below $106 support; testing lower range support at 102–103.

• Alphabet: Range-bound between support at 331–337 and key resistance at 349–350.

• Katrina Group: Speculative pullback following sharp spike; resistance at 0.065–0.066, support at $0.055 and $0.047.

• ComfortDelGro: Range-bound between $1.24 and $1.29.

• Manulife US REIT: Consolidating sideways following a sell-off, holding $0.032 support; resistance at $0.036.

• Rex International: Extended downtrend following breakdown of 0.062–0.065 support; next key support at $0.050.

AI Disclaimers

This report was AI summarized and may contain inaccuracies or omissions. Please verify all critical information independently.