Saturday, May 2, 2026
Friday, May 1, 2026
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary
Dated: 27/04/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/ZbvjNcqlJ9s
Presentation Summary
Corporate Updates
Zixing: The company expects 28% year-on-year growth in fresh sweet potato harvests for FY2026, supported by better weather conditions and peak harvesting windows. Strategic focuses include expanding high-margin processed products like sweet potato powder for health and cosmetic sectors, and a medium-term growth catalyst in the Hainan project, which could double output once commercialized.
Tesla: Despite a 56% year-on-year increase in adjusted profit due to higher vehicle deliveries and cost discipline, the outlook remains negative. Analysts maintain a "Sell" call, citing a structural decline in the auto business, loss of market share in China, and negative free cash flow projected for the remainder of the year.
Intel: Revenue rebounded 7% year-on-year, driven by strong CPU demand for AI "agentic" workloads. Key developments include the "Teraf" partnership with SpaceX, XAI, and Tesla, and an expansion of advanced process technology in Malaysia, which is expected to benefit partners like AEM.
Nanofilm: The company saw a 24% acceleration in revenue, driven by broad-based demand across consumer and industrial sectors. While "Customer A" (a major smartphone brand) remains its largest revenue contributor, Nanofilm is diversifying into watch housings and semiconductor front-end tools like wafer lapping carriers.
Keppel Ltd: Asset management and earnings growth remain intact, with a significant recovery in electricity spreads. The company is targeting $2 billion to $3 billion in asset monetization to support special dividends and expects stronger second-half earnings from its new 600-megawatt power plant.
Singapore REITs (S-REITs)
Hospitality and Office Growth: OUE REIT reported strong performance in hospitality (Hilton Orchard and Crowne Plaza) and continued positive rent reversions in the office segment. Suntec REIT also saw strength in its Singapore portfolio, though its overseas assets remain a drag.
Capital Management: Elite UK REIT reduced its net gearing to 37% and saw an increase in portfolio valuation, particularly for assets converted to student accommodation. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) is proposing a major acquisition of Paragon, funded by a private placement and the divestment of Asia Square Tower 2, which is expected to be DPU accretive.
Operational Resilience: Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) maintained a high portfolio occupancy of 99.8% with healthy rental reversions of 6.5%. Analysts noted that the market generally rewards high-quality, DPU-accretive transactions like the Paragon deal.
Market Outlook and "Godzilla" Cycles
The presentation highlights two major "super cycles" or "Godzilla" cycles:
Semiconductor Super Cycle: The current upcycle is 24 months long, with historical averages suggesting it could last 30 months or longer. This is fueled by AI infrastructure growth, including large language models and massive data center investments.
El Niño Cycle: A potentially severe El Niño could disrupt palm oil production, leading to a spike in prices similar to the rallies seen in 1998 and 2016.
Singapore Property Market: HDB and private property prices remain resilient despite cooling measures, largely due to very tight supply and low inventory (less than two years of demand).
Technical Analysis
S&P 500: Continues its bullish momentum with a break above consolidation flags, targeting resistance levels between 7,220 and 7,320.
Semiconductor Index (SOX): The index has experienced a rare, 18-day consecutive rally with a 47% gain. While historical data suggests a possible short-term pullback following such sharp momentum, long-term returns tend to remain positive.
Q&A Session
US "Magnificent 7" and Tech Stocks
Amazon: The focus is on AWS and AI momentum, with expectations for 25% to 30% growth; analysts are also watching for details on their partnership with Anthropic,.
Apple: Monitoring iPhone 17 growth durability and market share in China, alongside concerns over rising memory costs and tariffs,.
Alphabet (Google): Analysts are watching for updates on Gemini AI scaling and Google Cloud, which is expected to grow 45% year-on-year.
Meta: The ad business remains resilient, but there is a focus on capex spending for chips and the need for a clearer AI monetization plan.
Microsoft: Analysts expect resilient software subscriptions despite price hikes and are tracking cloud capacity updates following recent data center agreements.
AMD: Despite a recent surge, fundamentals are not seen as overstretched, though a technical pullback is possible as the RSI has reached an extreme level of 88.9,,.
Reddit: Key performance indicators include ARPU growth, particularly closing the gap between US and international monetization.
Singapore Corporates
TeleChoice: The company has been aggressively buying back shares at 26 cents; a major potential catalyst is a large data center contract for which they are one of two bidders.
IX Biopharma: Following a sharp share price increase, news flow is expected regarding compound pharmacy monetization and potential FDA emergency use approvals.
Addvalue Technologies: The stock rose due to the announcement of a NASDAQ listing for a subsidiary and its unique satellite-to-satellite communication technology.
HLAsia: Their $90 million acquisition of Yong Tailong (involved in HDB bomb shelters) is considered earnings-accretive and a positive entry into the Singapore construction market.
SoilBuild: Analysts expect order books to normalize to around 700–800 million, with growth driven by semiconductor facility contracts funded by the Singapore RIIE budget.
Thai Beverage: The stock has been weak due to inflationary pressures hurting consumer spending in Thailand.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
First REIT: DPU was impacted by FX weakness (Rupiah and Yen); the trust is undergoing a strategic review to pivot toward developed markets.
Stoneweg: This REIT is expected to benefit from inflation-indexed rent escalations and its long-term pivot into the data center sector.
CapitaLand India Trust: Recent price declines are attributed to macro sector issues rather than company-specific failures.
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) & Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT): Technical support levels for adding positions were identified at 2.35–2.40 for CICT and $2.26 for FCT.
Technical Analysis and Other Counters
Singtel: The share price is approaching a major horizontal support level at 4.50–4.55, with the RSI indicating it is currently oversold.
Singapore Banks: DBS, UOB, and OCBC are largely seen as being in a range consolidation phase, with DBS having strong support at $56.10,.
Sheng Siong: Remains in a strong uptrend channel with immediate support at $2.97.
Sembcorp Industries: A pullback is expected to find support around $6.65, following a recent rally.
Saturday, April 25, 2026
Friday, April 24, 2026
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary
Dated: 20/04/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/RWrYO9luENk
Presentation Summary
US Strategic Sector Play (SSP) Summary
The presentation reviewed several key tech sectors, focusing on the impact of AI and upcoming IPOs.
Tesla & the "Elon Musk Ecosystem": Tesla is viewed as facing a "reating risk" as its growth engine stalls, with deliveries in a steady decline since Q3 2025 following the removal of US EV tax credits. The analysts noted that the upcoming SpaceX IPO (expected June 2026) is a significant competitor for Musk’s capital and attention, particularly as SpaceX holds better AI optionality (such as Grok/xAI) compared to Tesla. They maintain a Sell call on Tesla with a target price of $215.
Software & AI: Fundamentals remain intact despite AI disruptions. Major upcoming IPOs, including OpenAI and Anthropic, are expected to act as catalysts for the broader tech market and benefit cloud providers like Microsoft. Microsoft is launching a new premium "E7" package to accelerate co-pilot adoption and offset potential seat-based revenue declines from industry layoffs.
Digital Advertising (Meta & Alphabet): Meta is shifting from a focus on user "scrolling" to becoming "super intelligent" through ad efficiency and content generation, though it faces short-term margin pressure from high capex. Alphabet is evolving beyond search toward "Agentic Commerce" with its Gemini model, which currently processes 10 billion tokens per minute.
E-Commerce (Amazon): Despite flat US retail sales, Amazon is considered a defensive stock due to its logistics scale and the re-acceleration of AWS growth, which grew 24% year-on-year in the most recent quarter.
Semiconductors (Nvidia): There is broad optimism for the sector, with Nvidia positioned to capture future AI demand through deals for custom chips with companies like Marvell and Scyfer.
US Bank Updates
All three major US banks covered released results recently:
JP Morgan: Achieved record market revenue, but share prices were hit after the bank trimmed its net interest income (NII) guidance due to shifting deposit behavior.
Wells Fargo: Analysts upgraded the stock to Buy as the bank finally resolved all regulatory consent orders and had its asset cap removed, allowing for normalized growth.
Bank of America: Noted for its strong operating leverage and was the only bank of the three to raise its NII guidance.
Other Stock Highlights
Netflix: Demonstrated strong pricing power and is on track to double its ad revenue by FY26. While the termination of a deal with Warner Bros. was a missed opportunity for IP expansion, the impact is considered manageable.
Keppel DC REIT: Reported strong rental reversion of 51%, but continues to face challenges with unpaid rent in its China (Guangdong) data centers.
Singapore Weekly and Macro Outlook
The Singapore economy shows strength, particularly in exports, with semiconductor exports jumping 114% year-on-year. SIA saw a 12% jump in passenger travel, partially benefiting from Middle East flight disruptions that led travelers to use Singapore as a direct hub to Europe. Frencnken was highlighted as a beneficiary of the turnaround in ASML, specifically regarding high-end EUV lithography products. Finally, the technical analysis for the S&P 500 remains bullish, as it continues to reach new all-time highs.
Q&A Session
Singapore Market Stocks
Yangzijiang (YZJ) Maritime/Financial: The analysts prefer YZJ Maritime over its shipbuilding and financial counterparts. Maritime is benefiting from a shipping cycle upswing, recent leasing agreements worth $90 million, and new VLCC builds that could significantly boost internal rates of return (IRR) from 10–15% to 20–30%. YZJ Financial was noted for its high non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and heavy exposure to the Chinese real estate sector.
Singapore Airlines (SIA): Despite strong operations, SIA faces a significant drag from Air India’s losses (SIA owns 25%), which could impact its bottom line and ability to pay dividends. Air India is struggling with high fuel costs and airspace closures that increase flight times.
OCBC & DBS: The analysts reiterated their preference for DBS over OCBC because OCBC maintains a strict 50% dividend payout policy, whereas DBS does not have such a cap. OCBC has high excess capital (CET1 15.1%), and while special dividends are possible if share buybacks are not completed, the board appears conservative about increasing regular payouts.
MoneyMax: Recent placement news was viewed as a net positive, as it helps the company meet the 15% public float requirement to transfer from the Catalyst to the Mainboard.
Singtel: The stock has been weak due to poor sentiment and macro headwinds in its emerging market holdings (Thailand, India, etc.), where mobile consumption is viewed as semi-discretionary.
iX Biopharma: The analysts maintain a positive long-term view due to US government sponsorship for product development and the potential for Phase 3 FDA approval.
Frencken: Though the share price has doubled, analysts believe there is still upside momentum as the company has yet to announce its strongest results.
US Market Stocks
Tesla: The outlook remains negative. Analysts expect upcoming results to be a "disaster" on a quarter-on-quarter basis due to declining deliveries. They also noted that the SpaceX IPO will likely siphon off "Elon Musk premium" capital from Tesla.
Oracle: Highlighted for its massive 2.3 GW deal with Bloom Energy to secure fuel cell power for its data centers, positioning it ahead of peers in addressing energy shortages. Analysts see Oracle as a catalyst play for the upcoming OpenAI IPO.
Microsoft & Palantir: Microsoft is viewed as currently oversold despite market concerns over high capex and slower cloud sales. Palantir is recognized as a high-growth company (70% commercial revenue growth), though its valuation remains a point of market punishment.
JP Morgan vs. Morgan Stanley: JP Morgan is preferred for its diversification and defensive qualities, whereas Morgan Stanley is seen as a more volatile "pure play" on wealth and capital markets.
Nvidia: Positioned strongly to capture future AI demand through deals with Marvel Tech and Sci-Fi for custom chips.
Technical Analysis & Other Mentions
S&P 500: Technical momentum is bullish, with targets between 7,220 and 7,320.
Technical Picks: Bank of China and SGX show strong bullish momentum. Conversely, Manulife US REIT remains in a weak downtrend, and Ultra Green AI has shown persistent share price weakness.
PC Partner: The analysts decided not to initiate coverage, viewing it as too cyclical due to its two-year product refresh cycles tied to Nvidia’s GeForce updates.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)