Saturday, July 18, 2026
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary
Dated: 13/07/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/iONtJ2YJPpM
Presentation Summary
The presentation provides a comprehensive 3Q26 US market outlook, emphasizing that the AI trade continues to be profitable for companies that can provide concrete evidence of monetization. Analysts noted that while the NASDAQ performed well in the second quarter, the rally was uneven, signaling a shift to a stock-picker's market where buying the entire AI basket is no longer a viable strategy.
Key sector strategies and insights from the presentation include:
Technology and AI Monetization: Cloud revenue grew 35% in the first quarter, indicating that AI demand is outpacing capacity. Microsoft is a top software pick for its clear AI monetization through Copilot and Azure, while Oracle is favored for its surging infrastructure capacity and partnership with OpenAI.
Semiconductors: The recent pullback is viewed as a buying opportunity, as earnings growth currently supports share price levels. Micron is the top pick in this sector due to its strategic customer agreements and significant revenue growth.
Banking: The theme for banks is "getting paid today," as they benefit from higher interest rates, loan growth, and a revival in IPO fees without the execution risks of AI capex. Wells Fargo is the only bank with a "buy" recommendation due to its asset cap removal and "self-help" growth story.
Digital Advertising: The industry is shifting from manual campaigns to AI-driven algorithmic "black boxes" for precision targeting. Meta and Alphabet are successfully utilizing AI to increase ad pricing power, and Reddit is highlighted for its performance advertising and valuable data licensing for LLM training.
E-commerce and Hardware: Consumers are becoming more value-conscious, favoring essentials and promotional deals. Amazon is a top pick because its retail model aligns with this trend and AWS growth is re-accelerating. Conversely, Apple is rated neutral due to rising memory costs and regulatory hurdles preventing its AI rollout in Europe and China.
Automotive: A sell call is maintained for Tesla, as analysts remain concerned that its recent volume growth was driven by discounts and incentives that may hurt the bottom line.
Air Transport and Technicals: The air transport sector is facing jet fuel price volatility and significant aircraft delivery backlogs. Technically, the S&P 500 is attempting to break out of a consolidation phase to retest all-time highs. An analysis of IPOs suggests that while Singapore mainboard listings have been lackluster, Catalyst listings have provided more reliable short-term gains.
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Q&A Session
Banking and Finance
Singapore Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB): The analysts noted a strong rally in Singapore banks driven by expectations of robust second-quarter results, specifically high fee income and strong loan growth. DBS was highlighted as the top pick among the three because it satisfies four key criteria: margin stabilization, double-digit fee income growth, absolute dividend per share guidance, and a recent guidance upgrade.
US Banks: Earnings are expected to be stable, benefiting from the same themes of loan growth and high investment banking fees from a revival in IPOs.
Technology and Semiconductors
Micron vs. SK Hynix: While SK Hynix holds a dominant 56% market share in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the analysts prefer Micron due to its $100 billion order book visibility and its strategic position as a US-based company.
Samsung: Recent guidance showed impressive 240% year-on-year growth, though the share price dropped slightly because revenue figures fell just short of high market expectations.
ASML and TSMC: Both companies are expected to exceed their "softer" second-quarter guidance due to sustained demand from hyperscalers and memory players.
Nvidia: Technical analysis suggests the stock is looking better after breaking out of a recent range, with support established around the 204–205 level.
Microsoft and Intel: Microsoft's chart currently shows sideways movement similar to the broader software ETF, while Intel has shown short-term weakness on its weekly timeframe.
Consumer and Digital Media
Apple and OpenAI: A lawsuit between the two over alleged theft of hardware "know-how" was discussed. Analysts suggested the litigation might be a move by Apple to buy time to catch up on its own AI hardware developments.
Meta: The stock rallied significantly but is approaching strong resistance levels between $670 and $690.
Netflix: Despite strong execution, a recent share price "crash" was attributed to soft forward guidance and very high market expectations.
Walmart: The stock remains in a steady uptrend as long as it holds support above $113.
Singapore Mid-Caps and Industrials
Sembcorp: A recent sell-down due to weak renewable energy performance in India (caused by weather) was identified as a potential buying opportunity, as technical indicators hit an oversold RSI level of 23.
Skyline: The company is shifting focus toward higher-margin engineering and MRO services, such as automated bus painting, which offers better margins (70–80%) compared to its core leasing business.
Q&M Dental: The company recently made two acquisitions with a 9-year profit guarantee and a 15-year share lock-up for the vendors, which analysts viewed as positive for earnings accretion.
Geo Energy: The analysts are watching for a boost in earnings from a newly completed $190 million toll road and infrastructure project currently undergoing testing.
Oiltek: Sentiment remains positive based on the potential for new contracts in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biodiesel.
SIA: The stock is currently experiencing short-term technical weakness and a loss of momentum.
Foundation Healthcare: The analysts explained the "stabilization" mechanism used during its IPO, where bankers buy back shares to support the price at the IPO level.
OUE REIT: The impact of Deloitte moving out of its office space—which accounts for 5% of portfolio revenue—was discussed; however, the analysts believe backfilling the space will not be difficult given the current below-market rent.
Singapore Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB): The analysts noted a strong rally in Singapore banks driven by expectations of robust second-quarter results, specifically high fee income and strong loan growth. DBS was highlighted as the top pick among the three because it satisfies four key criteria: margin stabilization, double-digit fee income growth, absolute dividend per share guidance, and a recent guidance upgrade.
US Banks: Earnings are expected to be stable, benefiting from the same themes of loan growth and high investment banking fees from a revival in IPOs.
Micron vs. SK Hynix: While SK Hynix holds a dominant 56% market share in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the analysts prefer Micron due to its $100 billion order book visibility and its strategic position as a US-based company.
Samsung: Recent guidance showed impressive 240% year-on-year growth, though the share price dropped slightly because revenue figures fell just short of high market expectations.
ASML and TSMC: Both companies are expected to exceed their "softer" second-quarter guidance due to sustained demand from hyperscalers and memory players.
Nvidia: Technical analysis suggests the stock is looking better after breaking out of a recent range, with support established around the 204–205 level.
Microsoft and Intel: Microsoft's chart currently shows sideways movement similar to the broader software ETF, while Intel has shown short-term weakness on its weekly timeframe.
Apple and OpenAI: A lawsuit between the two over alleged theft of hardware "know-how" was discussed. Analysts suggested the litigation might be a move by Apple to buy time to catch up on its own AI hardware developments.
Meta: The stock rallied significantly but is approaching strong resistance levels between $670 and $690.
Netflix: Despite strong execution, a recent share price "crash" was attributed to soft forward guidance and very high market expectations.
Walmart: The stock remains in a steady uptrend as long as it holds support above $113.
Sembcorp: A recent sell-down due to weak renewable energy performance in India (caused by weather) was identified as a potential buying opportunity, as technical indicators hit an oversold RSI level of 23.
Skyline: The company is shifting focus toward higher-margin engineering and MRO services, such as automated bus painting, which offers better margins (70–80%) compared to its core leasing business.
Q&M Dental: The company recently made two acquisitions with a 9-year profit guarantee and a 15-year share lock-up for the vendors, which analysts viewed as positive for earnings accretion.
Geo Energy: The analysts are watching for a boost in earnings from a newly completed $190 million toll road and infrastructure project currently undergoing testing.
Oiltek: Sentiment remains positive based on the potential for new contracts in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biodiesel.
SIA: The stock is currently experiencing short-term technical weakness and a loss of momentum.
Foundation Healthcare: The analysts explained the "stabilization" mechanism used during its IPO, where bankers buy back shares to support the price at the IPO level.
OUE REIT: The impact of Deloitte moving out of its office space—which accounts for 5% of portfolio revenue—was discussed; however, the analysts believe backfilling the space will not be difficult given the current below-market rent.
AI Disclaimers
This report was AI summarized and may contain inaccuracies or omissions. Please verify all critical information independently.
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Tuesday, July 7, 2026
The AI Boom's Vulnerabilities: What the BIS Annual Economic Report 2026 Reveals
The
"AI boom" has been a significant driver of global economic
resilience, but it has also introduced several critical vulnerabilities that
could jeopardize future stability. These vulnerabilities range from immediate
supply-side constraints to systemic financial risks and long-term structural uncertainties. Explore the critical vulnerabilties and market dynamics below.
Investment
Sustainability and Overinvestment
- Unsustainable Capex: A massive
surge in capital expenditure (capex) on AI infrastructure—led by
"hyperscalers"—is currently outpacing the earnings and free cash
flow of these firms.
- Contest-Driven Overinvestment: Intense
competition for market leadership may fuel further overinvestment, as
firms race to dominate an uncertain future market.
- Historical Boom-Bust Cycles: The current
boom bears a striking resemblance to historical episodes like the
19th-century "railway mania" and the late-1990s "dotcom
boom," where technological breakthroughs attracted capital far in
excess of what commercial returns could ultimately justify, leading to
eventual busts and recessions.
Supply-Side
Roadblocks
- Resource Bottlenecks: The buildout
of AI is facing growing shortages in electricity, advanced semiconductors,
and grid equipment.
- Inflationary Pressures: Massive
demand for computing power is already driving up electricity prices and
input costs, which could spill over into broader inflation.
Will the current AI boom be the biggest Boom-Bust cycle? Is it currently still at the starting phase?
Financial
Vulnerabilities and Opaque Financing
- Circular Financing: The AI
sector is characterized by a complex, opaque web of private arrangements,
most notably "circular financing," where chip makers and
hyperscalers take equity stakes in AI labs that, in turn, commit to
multi-year purchases of their products.
- Rising Leverage and Debt: Investment
is increasingly financed by debt rather than just cash flow, leaving firms
vulnerable to a sudden pullback in financing if payoffs disappoint.
- Concentrated Private Credit: Private
credit funds have significantly expanded their lending to the AI and IT
sectors, leading to high concentration risks as multiple lenders often finance
the same software borrowers.
Macroeconomic
and Asset Price Risks
- Stretched Valuations: Equity
valuations for core AI firms are highly elevated, pricing in ambitious
long-term earnings growth that may be difficult to sustain as these firms
mature.
- Wealth Effect Sensitivity: Because
household exposure to stocks has grown relative to wealth and income, a
major correction in AI-related equity markets could trigger a sharper
pullback in consumer spending than in the past.
- Repricing Feedback Loops:
Disappointments in AI payoffs could trigger a sharp tightening of
financial conditions, where compressed risk premia unwind abruptly,
potentially leading to a corporate credit freeze.
Labor Market and Long-Term Growth Concerns
- Labor Displacement: Unlike
previous technologies that provided better tools for workers, AI competes
directly with human cognitive abilities, increasing the risk of
significant labor displacement.
- The "Demand Bottleneck": In a worst-case long-term scenario, widespread automation could divert so much income from labor to capital that the consumer base erodes; if there is insufficient demand to justify further expansion, productivity could stall, leading to a "demand bottleneck".
Technological
and Cyber Risks
- Enhanced Cyber Threats: Frontier AI
models lower the cost and accelerate the pace of cyberattacks, which can
identify and exploit financial system vulnerabilities at scale.
Sunday, July 5, 2026
PSR Strategy & Stock Picks 3Q2026 5 Min Summary
Dated: 04/07/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/GTRABNUoxIg
Presentation Summary
Market Strategy: The AI "S-Curve" and Singapore's Resilience
The research team argued that we are currently in an AI adoption "S-curve" rather than a bubble. Valuations, particularly for leaders like Nvidia (trading at ~20x), are not seen as "frothy" compared to the 1990s dot-com boom when companies like Cisco reached 100x PE ratios.
The Singapore market remained resilient in the first half of the year, rising nearly 6% excluding dividends despite geopolitical tensions like the Middle East war. The team highlighted that the STI offers attractive yields (~4%+) compared to local fixed deposits (~1%), with electronics exports surging by 80%.
Key Sectoral Outlooks
Banking (The "Three Rs"): The focus is on Rates, Returns, and Resilience. While net interest margins (NIM) are compressing, this is being offset by record-high loans growth (up 8.7% YTD) and surging fee income, particularly from wealth management.
Top Pick: DBS is favored for its clear dividend guidance and superior fee income growth.
REITs: The strategy is to be highly selective, favoring REITs with strong sponsors, gearing below 45%, and high interest-rate hedging (~85%). The sector is currently viewed as undervalued, trading at 0.9x P/NAV.
Top Picks: Cromwell European REIT (high 8.5% yield and data center pivot) and Prime US REIT (deep value at 0.3x P/NAV).
Construction & Semiconductors: Construction is seeing a sharp uplift in tenders for major projects like Changi Airport Terminal 5 and the Greater Sentosa master plan. Semiconductors remain in a long-term uptrend driven by foundry capex (e.g., TSMC).
Top Picks: BRC Asia (steel rebar), Pan United (concrete), and Frencken (semiconductor components).
Transport & Defense: SIA and SIA Engineering are benefiting from rerouted flights and a massive demand for engine maintenance. ST Engineering is poised to benefit from global defense spending and a $11 billion export opportunity.
Top Pick: China Aviation Oil due to jet fuel price differentials and the expansion of Shanghai Pudong International Airport.
Model Portfolio and Top Stock Picks Summary
The presenters highlighted several specific stocks categorized by their growth potential or yield stability:
The team concluded by reiterating that while some sectors face near-term volatility, the underlying earnings growth in banks and the AI-driven tech cycle provide a strong foundation for the Singapore market in Q3 2024
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Q&A Session
Banking and Defense
DBS: The team defended its "stretched" valuation, arguing it is justified by its status as the highest quality bank in Singapore with stable asset quality and superior growth. They emphasized that DBS offers clear dividend visibility, yielding approximately 5% through 2027, making it a preferred "stable" pick despite its high price-to-book ratio.
ST Engineering: Its exposure to Europe is considered minimal. Growth is primarily driven by Middle East exports (such as 40mm weapons) and countries seeking to replicate Singapore's local defense model. The analyst noted that European defense companies are already capped in capacity, providing an opening for ST Engineering.
Technology and Semiconductors
Ultra Green AI: Key risks identified include regulatory approval timelines in Europe and the U.S. for their quantification software, as any delay would impact the 2027 revenue target. Other risks include potential molecular alternatives and past contamination issues in their freeze-drying process, which they are now mitigating by diversifying partners.
AEM & UMS: While not officially under house coverage, both are viewed as major beneficiaries of TSMC’s increased capex and the global surge in AI token usage. UMS is highlighted as a critical supplier for Applied Materials and Lam Research, while AEM is linked to Intel’s ongoing foundry turnaround story.
Addvalue Technologies: The analyst expressed a reserved view on this stock due to its high valuation and competition from SpaceX, despite its specialized satellite data relay technology.
Real Estate and REITs
CapitaLand Investment: The stock's downward trend is attributed to the Middle East conflict, which has made global investors more hesitant to commit equity, thereby impacting CLI's fundraising and fee income generation. Long-term, the team remains positive on its asset-light strategy and China asset recycling.
Parkway Life REIT: Currently trading at a 4–5% yield, it is noted for its "Project Renaissance," which is expected to drive 20–30% rent increases in its Singapore portfolio.
Prime US REIT: The primary risk discussed was currency depreciation, as the REIT trades in USD; investors may face a lower yield when converting distributions back to SGD if the USD weakens.
Other Mentions
Geo Energy: Noted as a stock that significantly hurt the model portfolio's performance due to Indonesian regulatory changes, though a major catalyst is expected in August when new infrastructure production begins.
Small-Mid Caps: The team mentioned that the Equity Market Development Project (EQDP) might shift focus toward supporting these counters and helping with IPOs, which could serve as a catalyst for the broader Singapore market.
AI Disclaimers
This report was AI summarized and may contain inaccuracies or omissions. Please verify all critical information independently.
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
PSR Weekly Market Outlook 5 Min Summary
Dated: 29/06/2026 Source: https://youtu.be/u2tOXhKgjiQ
Presentation Summary
Stock Updates and Initiations
Micron Technology: The research team highlights a shift in Micron's business model titled "breaking the boom and bust cycle". Micron reported exceptional third-quarter 2026 results, with revenue spiking 346% year-on-year. To reduce its historical cyclicality, Micron has signed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) lasting until 2030, increasing its order book from 5 billion to 100 billion. High-profile customers like Nvidia and AMD have provided 2 billion in deposits to secure memory supply. The target price was raised to $1,870.
UltraGreen.ai: This new initiation covers a company that IPOed in December 2025 and holds a 63% market share (near-monopoly) in Indocyanine Green (ICG) vials used for real-time blood flow visualization during surgery. The company is expanding its total addressable market by leasing imaging hardware in Asia and seeking US and European approval for a new quantification software platform. They maintain high gross margins of 85%. The team initiated a Buy rating with a target price of $1.92.
Thai Beverage: Management reports a "fragile" Thai consumer environment characterized by flat incomes and diminishing spending capacity. TAB's strategy involves "shrinkflation" through smaller, more affordable packaging and the introduction of ready-to-drink spirits. Despite the tough environment, the research team maintains a Buy rating based on attractive valuations and a 5.5% dividend yield.
Sector and Market Analysis
US Software Sector: The team observes that premium valuations are under pressure as investors rotate from software into AI infrastructure (semiconductors and private plays like SpaceX). While fundamentals remain resilient with 17% revenue growth, the team downgraded Adobe and Salesforce to Neutral, citing slower growth and limited near-term AI monetization. Top picks remain Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir.
Technical Analysis:
S&P 500: The index broke its 10-week SMA support, and a potential head and shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chart, suggesting near-term weakness.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX): A "bullish trap" was noted above the 14,000 level, and bearish divergence on momentum indicators suggests continued short-term weakness.
Macro and Singapore Weekly:
Singapore: Industrial production is performing strongly, led by electronics and semiconductors (both up 36%). May exports jumped 38%, the highest growth rate in over 20 years.
US Macro: While inflation remains a concern, the team believes it has peaked and does not expect further interest rate hikes due to trending down wages and rents.
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Q&A Session
The "Magnificent 7" and US Tech
Tesla: The team maintains a sell call, noting that the stock has been weak and is largely driven by "hype" surrounding Elon Musk’s long-term goals, such as robots and Mars missions, rather than near-term fundamentals.
Microsoft: Despite recent underperformance linked to a broader software sector derating, the team maintains a buy call. They believe revenue from the OpenAI backlog will materialize more significantly in 2027.
Nvidia: Highlighted as a top pick likely to outperform due to AI buildouts by sovereign nations and enterprises. It is currently viewed as undervalued compared to its peers with a forward PE of 22x.
Amazon: Maintains an accumulate rating. While Prime Day sales saw a 15% drop in average order value as customers focused on everyday essentials, the team sees 70-80% of Amazon's upside coming from AWS and custom silicons.
Apple: Rated as neutral. The team discussed whether Apple might buy memory chips from China's CXMT but deemed it unlikely due to the supplier's presence on the Pentagon's blacklist.
Alphabet (Google) and Meta: Both are recommended. Alphabet is praised for its clear monetization pathway through Gemini and cloud services. Meta is expected to be more volatile in the short term as it competes in the B2B cloud space.
Semiconductors and US Software
Micron Technology: The team defended its new target price of $1,870, arguing that strategic customer agreements (SCAs) will stabilize the historically volatile "boom and bust" cycles of the memory market.
Oracle: Recently saw a share price retreat due to higher-than-expected capex ($90 billion), but the team views its debt as manageable given projected operating income growth through 2029.
Palantir and Palo Alto Networks: Cited as top software recommendations alongside Microsoft and Oracle.
SpaceX and Rocket Lab: SpaceX is viewed as "severely overvalued" and more of an AI/data center company than a space company. Rocket Lab was described as a smaller but "pure" space alternative.
US Banking Sector
The analysts noted that all 32 banks passed the Fed's stress tests.
JPMorgan: Remained the top pick for overall quality and diversification.
Wells Fargo and Citi: Highlighted for significant dividend increases (11% and 12%, respectively).
Bank of America: Noted for its lack of recent updates regarding capital returns.
Singapore and Regional Stocks
Singtel: The sale of Gulf shares for $1 billion was viewed as a positive move to realize value and potentially fund special dividends.
Keppel: Potential share price catalysts include the sale of M1, earnings from a new power plant, and the monetization of oil rigs.
UltraGreen.ai: The team addressed concerns about a previous "human error" that contaminated a production line, noting they have now onboarded additional partners to de-risk the supply chain.
OUE REIT: Their divestment of Crowne Plaza Changi Airport for $500 million was viewed favorably as it avoids heavy future renovation costs and provides "dry powder" for acquiring the Salesforce Tower in Sydney.
Thai Beverage: Despite the weak consumer environment, the team believes its high dividend yield is sustainable due to recurrent cash flows from its alcohol business.
First Resources: Identified as a top pick in the palm oil sector because it is a "pure play" and recently made a strategic acquisition.
Technical Analysis Picks
Brief technical outlooks were provided for several other counters, including SATS (strong uptrend), Q&M Dental (near-term weakness), and Broadcom (expected resistance). The team also noted that Anthropic is likely to target an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026.
AI Disclaimers
This report was AI summarized and may contain inaccuracies or omissions. Please verify all critical information independently.
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