STI Seasonality with R - "Will there be a sell in May"?

STI Seasonality with R - "Will there be a sell in May"?

Want to know the historical performance of a stock or STI? With R and SIT scripts, it takes less than a minute to get the answer.

R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS.
Download form here: https://www.r-project.org/

SIT seasonality scripts, download here: http://www.systematicportfolio.com/tools/seasonality-tool-user-reference

After running the script (based on 24/4/20 closing) for STI seasonality, less than a minute can get the results:



Obviously April was the strongest month and August was the weakest month.

  

The return of May was negative. However after adding the impact of ex dividends, the return should be more neutral. May seemed to be relatively weaker for recent years.

Next we can even deep dive into the charts of the individual months for each year.

Historical charts of May
  

 
 

 

 

US Central bank “printed” about US$1t since start of the year

US Central bank “printed” about US$1t since start of the year

Economists call it Quantitative Easing - monetary policy whereby central bank buys predetermined amounts  of government bonds or other financial assets in order to add money  directly into the economy.

We also call it “money printing”.

The “money printing” was reflected by the increase in the total assets on the US central bank (Federal Reserve - FED) balance sheet.

Over the past two weeks, about US$580b was "printed" as FED’s total assets increased from US$4.67t to US$5.25t to inflate the economy deflated by COVID-19!

From the start of the year, US$1.08t was "printed", from US$4.17t on 1 Jan to US$5.25t on 25 Mar

MSCI Singapore Index and component stocks ratios

MSCI Singapore Index and component stocks ratios

Genting Sp (34% cash/market cap after paying all liabilities), SGX and Venture (almost no debt), Suntec REIT (yield of 7.1%) and SembCorp Ind (50% book)

MSCI SINGAPORE INDEX. The MSCI Singapore Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Singapore market. With 25 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the Singapore equity universe.

Company financial data from www.shareinvestor.com

A snapshot of history: Dow during the 1930s great depression!

A snapshot of history:
Dow during the 1930s great depression!