When Luckin Coffee burst onto China’s café scene in 2017, it seemed destined to unseat Starbucks as the nation’s go-to coffee brand. But after a spectacular rise—and an even more spectacular collapse amid an accounting scandal—Luckin staged a remarkable comeback that’s still unfolding today. Here’s the story of how China’s homegrown coffee champion went from hero to zero and back again.
Founded in October 2017 in Beijing, Luckin Coffee quickly disrupted the market with a technology-first strategy: app-based orders, convenient pick-up kiosks, and aggressive discounts. This innovative model allowed it to rapidly expand its store count, surpassing Starbucks in China by 2019 and becoming the country's top coffee brand. Its rapid growth culminated in a successful Nasdaq IPO in 2019, raising approximately US$561 million.
However, this impressive expansion concealed significant financial misconduct. In January 2020, short-seller Muddy Waters Research published an investigative report alleging falsified financial and operational figures. Although Luckin initially denied the claims, an internal investigation in April 2020 confirmed that its chief operating officer had fabricated approximately US$310 million in 2019 sales revenue. This revelation led to executive firings and a dramatic stock price crash. Trading was suspended, and Luckin was delisted from Nasdaq on June 29, 2020. The company subsequently filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in the US in February 2021 and settled SEC charges for US$180 million in December 2020, without admitting or denying the allegations.
Post-2020, Luckin embarked on a significant restructuring effort, emerging from bankruptcy in March 2022 after completing its financial debt restructuring under U.S. law. This included replacing most of its top management responsible for the fraud. Centurium Capital became a key backer and the controlling shareholder in January 2022, holding over 50% of the voting interest. By August 2022, Luckin fully redeemed its offshore debt securities, eliminating its only offshore debt.
Luckin's impressive comeback has been fueled by a renewed commitment to its app-driven, cost-efficient new retail model. Key elements of its strategic rebirth and growth, with a focus on technology, cost control, and supply chain management, include:
Luckin's business is deeply rooted in technology, covering every aspect from customer engagement to supply chain management.
Luckin's model emphasizes cost advantages to provide high affordability to customers.
Luckin emphasizes a strong supply chain with high resilience and premium quality.
Luckin's strategic efforts have translated into significant financial recovery and expansion. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated 14,540 self-operated stores and 7,749 partnership stores across over 300 cities in China, including Hong Kong, with an additional 51 self-operated stores in Singapore. It has also recently expanded into Malaysia via franchise rights. By the end of 2024, Luckin had amassed 334.0 million cumulative transacting customers.
Financially, Luckin reported total net revenues of RMB34,474.8 million (US$4,723.9 million) in 2024, a 38.4% increase from 2023. The company achieved an operating income of RMB3,538.1 million (US$484.8 million) and a net income of RMB2,931.7 million (US$401.7 million) in 2024, marking a strong return to profitability. By 2023, Luckin had surpassed Starbucks to become China’s top coffee chain in both revenue and store count. Its OTC-traded shares have rebounded over 38 times from their 2020 lows.
In a bold move, Luckin debuted in New York City in June-July 2025, launching two app-only pickup stores. Its U.S. strategy mirrors its successful China playbook: app-first ordering, minimal-store formats, loyalty rewards, and aggressive promotional pricing (e.g., US$1.99 introductory drinks).
However the U.S. expansion has its unique challenges. The app-only, no-cash model, while efficient in China, has met with complaints from some U.S. consumers who prefer in-person ordering or cash payments. Additionally, while Luckin's prices are lower than Starbucks without coupons, they are not significantly cheaper than other affordable U.S. coffee chains like Dunkin' or McDonald's, suggesting a different market positioning challenge in the U.S..
Luckin Coffee's story is truly a unique comeback. Its digital-first, low-cost, and vertically integrated model has proven incredibly effective in China and is now being tested on the global stage. Whether it can redefine the global coffee landscape and maintain investor confidence will depend on its ability to navigate cultural nuances, sustain its competitive edge, and uphold stringent governance standards. Time will tell.
Laopu Gold, a name that just a year ago was unfamiliar to most investors, has now become one of Hong Kong’s most talked-about stocks. Dubbed the “Hermès of Gold,” Laopu is rewriting the rules in the luxury jewelry space with its rapid growth, sky-high margins, and powerful brand storytelling rooted in Chinese culture.
Founded in 2009 by entrepreneur Xu Gaoming, Laopu carved out a niche by combining traditional Chinese symbolism with high-purity gold craftsmanship. Think dragons, phoenixes, gourds, and calligraphic designs—offered not as mass-market accessories, but as culturally resonant luxury statements. Its name, Laopu (老铺), translates to “old shop,” evoking the legacy and gravitas of ancient Chinese goldsmiths.
https://laopuhuangjin.world.tmall.com/
But the company’s strategy is anything but old-fashioned. Since launching its retail brand in 2016, Laopu has aggressively expanded its boutique network across China. By the time of its IPO in June 2024, it operated 32 stores across 13 cities. That number has now grown to over 36 locations, including its first overseas boutique in Singapore.
Laopu’s debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was nothing short of spectacular. The retail tranche of its IPO was oversubscribed by nearly 600 times—a rare signal of investor excitement. And the rally didn’t stop there.
Originally listed at HK$40.50, the stock surged past HK$1,000 in less than a year—making it one of the most expensive stocks in Hong Kong in nominal terms. Even when 40% of its shares exited the post-IPO lock-up period in June 2025, the stock defied dilution fears and jumped another 15%.
This investor confidence isn’t just speculative. The company’s financial performance supports the story:
2024 revenue jumped from ¥3.18 billion to ¥8.51 billion
Net profit grew over 250% YoY to ¥1.47 billion
Gross margins exceeded 40%—far above industry peers like Chow Tai Fook (~25%)
Analysts from Citigroup, Jefferies, and Nomura have all issued “Buy” ratings with price targets north of HK$1,000, citing Laopu’s unique branding, strong earnings momentum, and scalable store model.
Laopu’s success lies in its fusion of culture, design, and retail strategy.
Cultural Relevance: Laopu anchors its products with the concept of "heritage gold" (古法黃金) that combines modern designs and classic Chinese culture, features matte (啞光), sandy (磨砂) or other texture of ancient royal jewelry, and applies at least two Chinese traditional handmade gold crafting techniques. This appeals deeply to affluent mainland consumers seeking identity-driven luxury.
Premium Positioning: Laopu combines 24k handmade gold, pioneered diamond-inlaid pure gold jewelry and applied heat treatment of enamels (燒藍) to pure gold as luxury elements and designs that are not easily replicated to support its high margin luxury brand.
Strategic Retail Presence and Unmatched Efficiency: Laopu Gold ranked first in Mainland China among all reputable jewelry brands (both international and domestic) in terms of both average revenue per shopping mall and revenue per available square meter, according to Frost & Sullivan.
Store openings and same-store growth: Laopu Gold opened seven new boutiques and optimized and expanded four existing ones to a total of 36 self-operated boutiques across 15 cities in 2024. Same store revenue growth rate in 2024 exceeded 120.9%.
Online Growth: Online revenue contributed to 12.4% of total revenue but grew 192.2% in 2024, compared to offline stores that grew 164.3%.
Despite the euphoria, some investors are starting to ask hard questions.
Valuation risk: With a trailing P/E above 100x, Laopu is priced for perfection. Any earnings miss or margin erosion could spark a sell-off.
Margin sustainability: The company’s unusually high gross margins have caught the eye of regulators. Competitors and analysts alike are skeptical of how long this advantage can last.
Limited liquidity: At a current price above HK$1,000 per share and a board lot size of 100 shares, retail investors may find it difficult to participate directly.
Laopu Gold represents a rare mix in today’s market: authentic brand identity, hypergrowth, and clear profitability. It’s no meme stock—it’s a business with vision, discipline, and cultural resonance. However, investors should tread carefully. While the long-term narrative is strong, the current valuation leaves little room for missteps.
For those who believe in China’s continued appetite for luxury and the power of homegrown brands, Laopu offers a compelling—but high-risk—opportunity. For others, it may be worth waiting for a more attractive entry point as the gold dust settles.
Laopu. (2024). 2024 Company annual report. https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0428/2025042801617.pdf
Wang, Y. (2024, July 2). Ex-China fisheries clerk becomes billionaire with 'Hermès of jewelry'. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2024/07/02/ex-china-fisheries-clerk-becomes-billionaire-with-hermes-of-jewelry/
This summary draws on information from the provided YouTube video transcript:
从追缉本·拉登到AI战争，解密Palantir的崛起之路【深度】
Palantir is a highly controversial and mysterious Silicon Valley company that specializes in advanced algorithms for both military and commercial applications. Co-founded by Alex Karp (CEO) and Peter Thiel (Chairman), it has gained significant attention for its role in national security and its unique approach to data and AI.
Here's a summary of key aspects about Palantir:
Rise to Prominence: Palantir became famous for assisting the U.S. military in finding Osama Bin Laden by analyzing massive amounts of data and intelligence. It also helped large banks recover billions from Ponzi schemes.
Vision for Future Warfare: CEO Alex Karp believes that future wars, or "virtual wars," will be "conflicts between algorithms," moving beyond physical battles. Palantir's slogan "Battles are won before they begin" emphasizes the power of algorithms in military strategy. The company is accelerating the development of advanced algorithms, including AI Agent technology, for military and commercial use.
Business Model - Customization and High Value:
Palantir's business is unique due to its "customization" approach, which involves sending engineering teams to deeply understand a client's business and build a tailored AI system. This model is considered "heavy" by Silicon Valley standards but has been effective for Palantir.
It targets large companies and government agencies/military. While government orders provide stable cash flow, commercial business is seen as the key to company growth.
Customers, like Airbus, have seen significant returns on investment (ROI), with Airbus increasing its ROI for airplane building by 25 times after using Palantir's customized software.
Core Products: Palantir offers four main product lines:
Gotham: Palantir's initial product, primarily serving government agencies and defense departments. It integrates diverse, seemingly unrelated information (e.g., satellite images, bank statements, medical records) to discover anomalies, prevent terrorist attacks, and optimize military decision-making. It has been used on battlefields for weapons management, coordinated combat, and providing an "AI-driven combat system" that significantly reduces the number of personnel needed for decision-making. Examples include finding roadside mine layers in Afghanistan and locating Bin Laden's hiding place.
Foundry: Palantir's product for large commercial enterprises. Similar to Gotham, it integrates massive enterprise data, using algorithms to find anomalies in areas like finance, supply chain, and manufacturing to improve efficiency. It addresses the "data island problem" in enterprises by providing structured integration with operational logic. Examples include optimizing Airbus's complex supply chain and managing product distribution and inventory for Tyson Foods. Foundry also has open APIs to allow access for various analysis tools, aiming to build an ecosystem similar to Apple's App Store.
AIP (AI Platform): Launched in 2023, AIP is a key product in the current AI craze and a cornerstone of Palantir's "AI Agent" story. It's an interactive plug-in that allows users to easily call large language models (like ChatGPT) and combine them with Foundry's capabilities. AIP focuses on "visualization and de-coding," significantly lowering the barrier for non-technical personnel to use Palantir's functions, allowing them to interact with the system like chatting with an assistant. Examples include improving equipment maintenance efficiency at Panasonic Energy by providing guidance from historical data and optimizing labor management in supermarket warehouses through a real-time dynamic scheduling system. AIP has been credited with accelerating Palantir's commercial sector revenue growth.
Apollo: Primarily used for software deployment and data integration of Gotham and Foundry. A key feature is solving data security and privacy issues, making it suitable for high-security environments and isolated systems. Palantir's experience with stringent government security requirements gives it a significant advantage in gaining trust from commercial clients, especially concerning data privacy.
Underlying Theoretical Basis - Ontology: The core theoretical concept underpinning all Palantir products is data ontology. This concept, initially philosophical, is applied in computing to create a hierarchical structure that expresses concepts, features, relationships, and networks within a specific field, providing AI with a knowledge graph. It essentially replicates a customer's "digital twin" by transforming real-world events into structured data models. Ontology consists of three parts: Data (managing relationships between data to solve "data swamp" issues), Logic (designing models for processing data and relationships), and Action (making decisions and ensuring conclusions are easily understandable to users).
Market Performance and Valuation: Palantir's stock price has soared 15 times since early 2023, exceeding Nvidia's increase and being sought after by retail investors as an "AI belief stock". Despite strong performance (e.g., Rule of 40% reaching 83% in 2025 Q1), Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio is exceptionally high (over 500 times), making it one of the most expensive high-growth software companies when viewed by traditional financial valuation methods. This suggests investors are very optimistic and hold high expectations for Palantir's future. A significant portion of its shares are held by individual investors, exceeding even Tesla.
Controversies and the Silicon Valley Right Wing:
Palantir operates in a controversial space, with critics raising concerns about its data services' effectiveness, its role in events like finding Bin Laden, and whether the public statements of Karp and Thiel are primarily for sales. The company has faced boycotts due to concerns about police use of its software threatening civil rights.
Both Alex Karp and Peter Thiel are seen as leaders of the rising "Silicon Valley right-wing wave". They are critical of the traditional defense industry's stagnation and what they term the "pussification" and "political correctness" in Silicon Valley, advocating for technology to serve national defense and collective value.
This shift in Silicon Valley's political spectrum, with influential figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen also joining the right-wing camp, is seen as a major factor behind Palantir's "national destiny stocks" concept and its valuation dividends.
Future Outlook: Palantir is actively negotiating with other Silicon Valley companies (including SpaceX and OpenAI) to form a technology alliance to challenge traditional defense giants for U.S. government projects. This move is supported by a belief that global geopolitics will remain unstable, driving demand and budget for technological innovation in the military industry.
